recent developments in Central Asia , one will notice that China is the biggest player and that there is no crucial capability or opportunity within the central Asian economy to be filled by India , Iran or other countries because China is already a dominant country in this geoeconomic scene . The Russian market , on the other hand , has a huge potential for Indian businesses and if India can connect its rising economy with another big economy like Russia , it will be a great opportunity to enhance cooperation between Iran and India along the Chabahar . In my assessment , connecting just Indian and Russian economies will create enough economic justification for INSTC and Chabahar project .
This writer spoke to Behrooz Aghaei , ports and maritime director general of Sistan and Baluchistan province . Chabahar port comes under his jurisdiction . He said that despite what appears at first glance , the “ Chabahar port ’ s exemption from sanctions ” granted by the US is not going to help the people of Afghanistan . In fact , it increases transit expenses of its commodities by imposing sanctions on ports ( which could have been better alternatives economically ) and puts further restrictions on Afghan merchants . Analysis reveals that imposing sanctions on Iran ’ s ports as the most secure and less expensive routes for Afghanistan implies imposing sanctions on Afghanistan itself .
Aghaei says that as far as India is concerned , the significant point is that Indian commodities that transit to Afghanistan don ’ t have enough trade volumes to rationalise marine and road transportation expenses . Bearing in mind the trade volume of Afghanistan , Russia and CIS countries , which altogether is more than 16 million tonnes , and the insignificant share of Afghanistan , it can be said that without making possible the transportation of all India ’ s merchandise to the abovementioned countries through Chabahar port , the so-called exemption of this port does not make any noticeable change in India ’ s trade . Therefore , Chabahar port ’ s exemption will only be a competitive advantage for India if all our merchandise for Afghanistan , Russia and CIS countries could be transported through the port without any restriction on banking transactions and insurance .
Aghaei adds that the noteworthy point about Afghanistan is that the exemption of Chabahar port will only be useful if there is no prohibition on vessels carrying merchandise entering and leaving it as well as on commercial transactions of cargo owners , merchants and shipping lines . Particularly banking transactions should be done without limitation .
The US may not agree to it . Its aim to provide a sanctions waiver to Afghanistan is to allow imports into that country . It is not concerned with the profits made by the Chabahar port . But it definitely will have an impact on the growth of the port . While Iran is under sanctions , Chabahar can never realise its full potential of being a route for Indo-Russia trade and trade to Europe via INSTC . Gwadar got a headstart over Chabahar , which was planned earlier , due to the US-Iran tensions and sanctions . Will we see Chabahar lag behind in trade due to it ?
( The writer is an independent journalist working on cyber security and the geopolitics of India ’ s neighbourhood , focussing on Pakistan , Afghanistan , Iran and Bangladesh )
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