[D ATA ]
KEY STATISTICS
H 2 I N T E R AC T I V E P O K E R DATA I N D E P T H
INTERACTIVE POKER Average interactive poker real-money player numbers fell 0.8% sequentially in June to 85,800, but with one less day overall total player volumes were down 4%. After the sharper than usual decrease in player volumes seen in May, the June volumes were better than expected with average player volumes having fallen 6.9% sequentially last year, 6.9% in 2011, 2.9% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2009. However, despite onshore regulation including the launch of the ?rst site licensed on US soil, for the time being the longer-term interactive poker trend continues to be downward with YoY real-money player volumes down approximately 7.7%. H2’s provisional assessment of interactive poker’s gross win for April 2013 came in at €194m. This is down 10.9% YoY and 7.2% sequentially. There continues to be a slight shift downward in stake levels and in regulated markets player volumes not translating into as strong revenues as in the dot com market. As of 30 June, the H2 Interactive Poker Player Volume Index was at 3,929 – 6.8% lower than at the end of May. H2 expects the gross win generated by the global real-money interactive poker sector to be around €2.76bn in the current year, which would be 5% down on the 2012 level. H2 still expects regulated markets – especially the US – to drive growth, with the sector pushing the €4bn gross win mark by 2015. The index’s average for the month at 3,112 was down 2.9% sequentially. H2 highlighted last month that it expected June to see the index fall below 3,000 for the ?rst time since September last year. The index is in danger of falling below its 2012 low of 2,913 in the coming weeks, although the launch of more Nevada poker sites should mean this is only a temporary position. Indeed by the end of the year, should the New Jersey sites also start launching, the index could be close to the 4,000 mark again. In Nevada, Ultimate Poker averaged over 200 realmoney players in June with its gross revenues thought to be at a run rate of US$7-7.5m. The 3,000 mark was not achieved by the sector until the end of December 2007 with 4,000 ?rst being achieved in December 2009. The index’s all-time high remains 5,800 in March 2010 meaning that some of the heat had already been lost from the sector even before April 2011 when Black Friday occurred. IN-PLAY BETTING AND LIVE DEALER CASINO It was back in the early days of H2’s key statistics features that we last looked at the contribution of in-play betting and live dealer casino growth. At the time, both sub-product verticals were the fastest growing in their classi?cation and since that time they have become central to most operator’s offerings. In 2006, live or in-play betting was con?ned to just a handful of sportbooks and was a niche product aimed at the Asian market. Since then, H2 has calculated that the value of the live betting market has increased at an incredible CAGR of nearly 78% as it has moved from a €60m niche to approximately €1.9bn in 2012 and is now expected to reach €2.2bn in the current year and €2.8bn by 2015. This means that in-play now accounts for 16% of the global interactive betting market, or circa 35% if horserace betting is excluded. Live dealer casino was also a niche product back in 2006 with just €40m of gross win generated that year. It had been billed as a means of catering for Asian players who were less comfortable with RNGs. However, during a period that has also seen slots record strong growth, live dealer has become an important part of most leading operators’ offerings as it has increased its gross win to over €750m in 2012 and seems set to be close to the €1bn mark in the current year. It now accounts for almost 15% of all
GROSS GAMING YIELD REAL-MONEY INTERNET POKER (€M)
Ring games and tournaments, including bonuses, ring games/ tournaments & all dot.com and dot. country sites
217 218 194
casino vertical gross win and can be up to 35% of some operators’ casino revenues. Live dealer is expected to grow to account to up to a quarter of the total casino vertical gross win in the medium term. Back in 2009, H2 reported that many operators then saw their live betting offers as exceeding their traditional betting (non-horseracing) in the not too distant future. With in-play now representing over a third of non-horserace interactive betting gross win, this now looks a strong possibility in the medium term. Even though in-play betting is not economically viable in all egulated markets due to the taxation regime, it is clear that it is what the consumer wants. ABOUT H2 H2 offers the most comprehensive egaming/land based data service as well as detailed market reports and bespoke consultancy. The subscriber area of H2’s website now includes almost two million data points and we are on track to add over 400 new / updated datasets / national regulatory updates in the current year. H2 has moved to publishing its Global eGaming Summary Dataset on a quarterly basis (all of the detail behind this month’s summary data is included in our latest edition) and launched a national eGaming Regulatory Update Service. In addition, H2 produces detailed market reports and one-off reports on issues such as mobile gambling and eGaming in the United States. All H2’s reports are available to free of charge subscribers as part of our service. As well as being eGR’s official data partner since 2009, H2 is a Gerson Lehrman partner ?rm and partnered with TrustPartners (Italy) and Gaming Edge Associates (UK). H2 is universally regarded as the leading source of data regarding the value and volume of the activity across the global gambling industry. Further details of all H2’s products and services including the Dutch Gambling Market Report may be found at www.h2gc.com or by emailing [email protected].
JUN 13 JUN 12 JUN 11
85,800 89,400 96,800
AVERAGE REAL-MONEY PLAYER NUMBERS
Ring games and tournaments
All sources: H2 Gamb