of revenue , profit and jobs growth . 8 In this way , quantitative estimates for each scenario could be confirmed and vetted by these business leaders .
The economic modelling process then incorporated these expert panel derived growth projections into a computable general equilibrium ( CGE ) model , which models the economy as a complex system of interdependent variables . The model also integrated data from input-output tables , labour force surveys , CO2 emission costs and other regional economic trends to quantify economic impact in terms of revenue and jobs growth ( by sector ) and overall impact on GRP ( through projecting changes to business investment , household and government consumption and changes to net exports ). The model was run for all three scenarios to present a comparative analysis . 9
CONCLUSION , LIMITATIONS AND LESSONS LEARNED Economic modelling of CE systems applied at municipal or regional levels frequently suffer from the failing of not being grounded in contextual reality . Projections tend to be based on growth estimates that are pulled from thin air . The Hume modelling process aimed to attenuate this concern by : i ) applying scenario analysis to a traditional CGE model to allow the impact of progressively elaborate CE commitments to be economically modelled ; and ii ) inviting business leaders to participate in the process to vet the economic projections , employing their own grounded assessment of business futures .
The process was far from perfect . The scenario modelling workshop with business leaders was delivered online using polling technology and helped the modelling team to ground projections through co-design . However , the workshop only attracted 16 participants . Given the scale and scope of Hume ’ s economy , far greater participation in this process would have yielded more representative refinements of the scenario outcomes .
The main lesson derived relates to the importance of ensuring sufficient time and funding is allocated to the co-design of economic opportunity analysis because the more inclusive this process can be , the greater is the likelihood that projections reflect business sentiments . With that said , the allure and power of employing participative scenario design lies in the understanding that modelling economic futures depends less on historical trend extrapolation than it does on commitment from the economic actors that generate the economic results . In this way , by involving stakeholders in the economic modelling process , not only can the scenario narratives be improved , the end projections will potentially be more realistic because the bottom-up design invokes a commitment from economic actors that is hard to achieve without participative design .
As Hume moves to the second stage of its Circular City strategy , the coalition of the willing that formed around the modelling process will join other business and community leaders in co-designing a strategy for achieving the goals set out in the Circular City scenario . Instead of the CE network planning process being disconnected from the original economic modelling process , the Hume strategy will ensure that future steps build from the economic model .
REFERENCES
1 . National Institute of Economic and industry Research 202 . ( 2020 ). ABS Cat : 8731.0
3 . Overton , I ., & Valentine , S . V . ( 2020 ). Developing an Effective Strategy for a CE , Economic Development Australia Journal , 13-2 , pp . 6-10 .
5 . These videos are accessible via : https :// acehub . org . au / whats-on / events / kpmgs-circularadvantage-course
7 . For more on storylines in scenario analysis see : Saito , O ., Kamiyama , C ., Hashimoto , S ., Matsui , T ., Shoyama , K ., Kabaya , K ., ... & Takeuchi , K . ( 2019 ). Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services . Sustainability Science , 14 ( 1 ), 5-21 .
8 . This approach was inspired by aspirational futures methodology . More on this can be found at : Rogers , C . D ., & Hunt , D . V . ( 2019 ). Realising visions for future cities : an aspirational futures methodology . Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Urban Design and Planning , 172 ( 4 ), 125-140 .
9 . This analysis was undergoing final revisions as of the date of submission so the economic projections under each scenario could not be reported on in this paper .
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
DR . SCOTT VALENTINE Dr Scott Valentine is chair of the advisory board at the Australian CE Hub , Director & Senior CE Specialist at KPMG , Professor of Regenerative Development and CE at the University of
Kyushu and Visiting Professor at the University of Brunei . Scott has led major research projects in Denmark , Holland and Australia around the CE with an emphasis on corporate strategy and public policy design and implementation . He is the designer and facilitator of KPMG ’ s Circular Advantage and is the chief architect of the economic opportunity analysis model described in this article .
MR . GEORGE OSBORNE George served for 22 years as an officer in the Australian Army including 2 yrs overseas with the US Marine Corps . Since leaving the Army in 2001 George has worked in
Emergency Services , the Not for Profit Sector and Local Government . As Manager Economic Development at Hume City Council since 2011 , he has launched a nationally recognised Local Jobs for Local People program , introduced a successful Investment Attraction Framework , supported the growth of Councils Circular Business Network and is currently leading delivery of a transformational Circular Economy program “ Towards Hume as a Circular City ”.
MR . IAN DAVIES An experienced environmental scientist / engineer and sustainability practitioner , Ian manages the Circular Business Network ( 3 days a week ) for Hume City Council . The Circular Business Network assists Hume businesses to look for ways to utilise the principles and practice of circularity to improve energy usage and efficiencies , reduce and re-purpose waste , optimise water use , and develop sustainable business practice through a circularity lens .