LONG-TERM PROSPERITY IN A TIME OF COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY
DEVELOPING A FUTURE-PROOF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Paul Tero , PhD Candidate ( Swinburne )
ABSTRACT This article outlines a method for forming an economic development strategy in the context of an unpredictable world . By reflecting upon the changes we all witnessed and experienced throughout 2020 , we intuitively grasp the need for updating our planning procedures . In particular , the need for fresh perspectives on how long-term local economic prosperity can be realised . Using a structured approach to asking a series of open questions that invite discovery and exploration , a set of more forward-looking inputs can be created for subsequent strategy development sessions . Concluding with several examples , the reader is encouraged to consider the approach canvassed .
LAYING THE FOUNDATION If 2020 taught us anything it is that business as usual is not guaranteed . Wind the clock back to the latter half of 2019 and more than likely we were planning events and other activities for the coming year just like we had in previous years . We were marking calendars , writing budgets , developing strategies and project plans as if 2020 was going to be like any other year .
IT DIDN ’ T TURN OUT THAT WAY . Businesses closed , tensions rose
and uncertainty filled the air . Critical conversations were had , support programs were launched and we looked forward to the rhythms of life returning to how they once were .
For these last months have awakened us to the potential of dislocation . A dormant idea has been brought to life : the possibility of different ways the future may unfold . Last year taught us about resilience , about adaptability and about being flexible . It brought about changes that if they were ever to come to pass at another time , they would likely have happened at a much slower place ( eg . remote working , digitisation of business operations , etc ). And it brought to the surface a now oft-posed question – what will the new normal look like ?
All of this leads to a renewed quest – how do we understand what lies ahead for our communities ? What does the future hold and how do we prepare for it ? If the recent past is any guide , uncertainty and complexity is set to be a feature of our local economies in the years ahead .
It will be important to create economic development strategies that lead to long term success in the face of unknowns . In the context of a future that is complex and uncertain .
Regarding the future , the time that lies ahead of us , the critical thought is this : what is your image of the future ? Because the future does not exist , all we have to go on are ideas about the future . It ’ s through our imagination that we create and develop visions and impressions of what lies ahead . Words such as potential , possibilities , and scenarios come into play . And you and your community can either passively accept the changes that are happening and just react to the forces that shape your economy , or you can think through what could happen and actively prepare for a range of outcomes .
I would suggest that by considering what may lie ahead , your community ’ s economic resilience will be improved . That by thinking about potential alternate futures before making any plans you increase the prospects for better longterm outcomes .
What follows deals directly with the issue at hand : economic development planning in an unpredictable world .
UNDERSTANDING COMPLEXITY AND UNCERTAINTY One of the best ways to handle complexity and uncertainty is through the use of one or more frameworks . Frameworks can guide your thinking . They can bring a
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT JOURNAL VOL 14 NO 1 2020 11