Local Institutions
Shared
Productive Apparatus
Fig 3 . The local economy as a social and economic machine
However , while it is stating the obvious , the thing to bear in mind is this : each locale is different . Each local economy is a complex and unique system that changes as it grows . Each of these unique systems exhibit different behaviours . One professor who has studied urban development policies and economics for decades referred to “ a place ” as a localised social and economic machine . His perspective of the “ local economy as a machine ” described the locale as having three interrelated components : a productive apparatus sub-system , a set of hard and soft local institutions that form another sub-system , and a third sub-system that is comprised of its shared culture .
And so , the place-based economic development strategy is not just about ensuring a fit for purpose business ecosystem in and of itself . But also ensuring that that ecosystem is understood by external stakeholders . It is not just about ensuring the strategy has relevant local government regulations , but also that there are linkages between local government and the startup culture .
It ’ s about the complexity of the local economy within the context of an unpredictable world . And , importantly , it is through structured thinking about our unpredictable world that prosperous long-term direction to our complex local circumstances can be brought .
Its how Royal Dutch Shell successfully navigated the oil-crisis of the 1970 ’ s . It ’ s how South Africa was helped in the immediate post-apartheid years . And it ’ s how cities such as Dublin and countries such as Ireland plan for their future .
Regarding Royal Dutch Shell . In the years prior to the 1973 OPEC oil crisis , a team within Royal Dutch Shell used a structured approach in their thinking about the future . One of the narratives that was developed spoke to the possibility of significant market disruptions . Essentially , thanks to their futures thinking , Shell went from a lesser global oil company prior to the oil crisis to one of the major players in the years following .
Regarding South Africa . The early 1990 ’ s was a period of turmoil as the structures of apartheid were being dismantled . In the midst of this , their future did look to be quite unpredictable . It was during this time that political parties , civic organisations , professional bodies , and so on , grappled with what might happen . One series of workshops approached the task of thinking about the future in a systematic way . The range of stories and images this group developed about the future helped the nation chart a viable course through this period of turmoil .
Regarding Dublin and Ireland . The National Planning Framework ( Project Ireland 2040 ) is the successor to their 2002 National Spatial Strategy . This new framework is quite thorough and includes planning related to economic activity , social progress and environmental outcomes . In developing the plan , inputs were gathered from a variety of sources , including socio-economic forecasts , statutory organisations and many consultations with a wide range of groups . What is relevant here is that economic , environmental and demographic forecasts arose from a process that settled on a plausible future from a range of alternate futures . In other words – they used a series of questions and frameworks to help them make sense of a changing world .
YOUR NEXT STEPS Heraclitus , the Greek philosopher of sixth century BC said it best – “ No man ever steps into the same river twice ”. He was saying that change is the constant in life . And this axiom is quite applicable to any field in which strategic planning is undertaken , let alone in economic development .
We instinctively know that we can ’ t just rinse-and-repeat the last plan with some new dates . Economies change , societies evolve , technologies get updated all the time . There are even , as some would call them , black-swan events like worldsweeping financial and health crises . And we haven ’ t even considered the dynamics of geo-politics !
But there is a way to improve economic development planning in an unpredictable world , and that is through meaningful deliberations about the future . Asking open and structured questions about the future invites discovery of what could be . And asking open and structured questions of what could be leads to an exploration of how it could be .
The local economies that will prosper in a complex and uncertain world are those that mobilise their locale ’ s potential in response to the drivers of change .
And so to close with a quote from Simon Sinek , “ The challenge of the unknown future is so much more exciting than the stories of the accomplished past ”
REFERENCES
Barca F ( 2009 ) “ An agenda for a reformed cohesion policy : a place-based approach to meeting European Union challenges and expectations ”, Commissioner for Regional Policy , April 2009
Beery J , Eidinow E , Murphy N ( 1997 ) “ The Mont Fleur Scenarios : what will South Africa by like in the year 2002 ?”, Global Business Network , 1997
Jefferson M ( 2011 ) “ Shell scenarios : What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects ”, Technological forecasting and Social Change , Vol 79 pp 186-197
Kelly E ( 2015 ) “ Toward a national planning framework : a roadmap for the delivery of the National Planning Framework 2016 ”, Environment , Community and Local Government
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT JOURNAL VOL 14 NO 1 2020 13