the whole system ’ s behaviour . In systems where relationships can change with feedback mechanism , the system is called a complex adaptive system . The economy is a man-made complex adaptive system and the transition to a new economic model requires a systems approach that is resilient and responsive enough to adjust to unanticipated change ( Valentine et al ., 2017 ). Being man-made should perhaps also make it easier to improve and adjust .
So how do we bring about systemic change in a complex adaptive system ? A traditional change mechanism of a complicated system would define a desired future state and plan a path to that from the current state . In complex adaptive systems if you try to over-control it you will miss the new patterns emerging . ’ Leaders who try to impose order in a complex context will fail , but those who set the stage , step back a bit , allow patterns to emerge , and determine which ones are desirable will succeed ‘ ( Snowden and Boone , 2007 ). In managing complex adaptive systems , you need to set a cluster of narratives , near to where you want the system to go , and manage for the direction and speed of change rather than for fixed outcomes ( Valentine , 2013 ). It is also important to address multiple interventions in the system at the same time and observe the response of the system rather than only relying on traditional approaches that try to pick a few key ‘ winners ’.
An effective circular economy strategy requires consideration of its complex adaptive nature , applying multiple interventions and flexibly manages the system as emergent properties alter development trajectories .
DEVELOPING AN ECOSYSTEM FOR CHANGE So what are the major components of developing a governance ecosystem to support systemic change ? Gorddard et al . ( 2016 ) identified three basic components of the decision context when considering change - knowledge , values and rules . These three components provide a framework for synthesising the collaborative power of numerous stakeholders . They align with the three components of the strategic triangle for creating public value : organisational capacity and productive capabilities ; public value ; and the authorising environment for legitimacy and support ( Moore , 1995 ).
Knowledge includes how to do things better , the processes and methods we use , the evidence that provides the impetus for change and the strategies for measuring and improving change . Values include people ’ s beliefs , their motivations for what is right and their world ( and other ) views . Rules includes the regulations and policies that guide compliance and the financial and social systems that frame economic development . These elements address : How can we do it ? Why should we do it ? Are we allowed to do it ? When considering what is needed to support the transition to a circular economy , knowledge , values and rules , provide a framework for circular economy network development .
’ Leaders who try to impose order in a complex context will fail , but those who set the stage , step back a bit , allow patterns to emerge , and determine which ones are desirable will succeed ‘ ( Snowden and Boone , 2007 ).
To leverage knowledge , planners and policy makers also need to tap innovation and technology to improve the way resources are used and managed and to provide the evidence for decision making . To leverage rules , they need to harness the political will to make changes and design incentives and regulations to direct development and fill network gaps . And to leverage values , they need to be inclusive and understand what motivates people , seeking consensus through consultation . A well-grounded circular economy incorporates social licenses to operate , convincing value propositions and progressive development through education .
An effective strategy for a circular economy requires strategies to integrate knowledge , values and rules , in order to optimise system integration and efficacy . Synthesising these elements establishes conditions for enhancing innovation , collaboration and responsiveness – all necessary elements for effectively managing complex adaptive systems .
DEVELOPING A CIRCULAR ECONOMY STRATEGY Planning a circular economy strategy can be conceptualised through two opposing approaches - top-down and bottom-up . The top-down approach is characterised by a centralised hierarchy , with government planners typically at the top of the hierarchy . These planners are tasked with the process of determining who plays what role in any emergent circular economy network . Conversely , the bottom-up approach is characterised by a more organic web of stakeholder relations , where industry , not-for-profits and communities play a far more participative role in determining what elements anchor a circular economy network ( Murray et al ., 2009 ). Both of these strategies come with strengths and weaknesses .
The top-down approach has at least four key strengths ( Rojas-Caldelas , 2015 ) that can be applied to circular economy networks :
1 . It can yield more cohesive networks because government planners are able to choose which stakeholders will be involved and define the functions that each stakeholder will play in the new circular economy network ;
2 . It can ensure greater cohesion because planners can minimise activity overlaps that can give rise to competitive conflict between organisations .
3 . Centrally planned initiatives are easier to implement because control over project management falls clearly to one overarching organisation , often the local government authority ; and
4 . It places government planners in a position of prime authority ; thereby providing a degree of assurance that the achievement of intended goals are somewhat within the civic realm of control .
As is often the case with strategy , many of the strengths associated with the top-down approach also give rise to weaknesses in circular economy design :
1 . Project development rests in the hands of comparatively few people . If those who lead the projects are not sufficiently competent , poor planning can lead to disastrous implementation ;
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