EDA Journal Vol 12. No.1 Autumn 2019 | Page 33

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY JAPAN’S NEW DEMOGRAPHIC PARADIGM – TOWARDS SOCIETY 5.0 BY BRUCE MARSHALL It doesn’t take too much analysis to come to the conclusion that Japan has the highest percentage of elderly citizens compared to any other country in the world. Off the back of a post-World War II baby boom, Japan reached peak population of 128 million people in 2010. Since that peak approximately 1.34 million less people now reside in Japan and trends suggest that the population decline is only going to continue. Without intervention, forecasts predict the population to shrink to 88 million people by the year 2060, a potential decrease of 40 million people in 50 years! Currently 27.4% of the population is aged over 65. Conversely only 12.3% of the current population is under the age of 15 with the balance of the population between 16-65 making up the remaining 60%. By comparison Australia’s population is made up of 18.9% (0-14), 66.2% (15-64) and 14.9% (65+). SO HOW DID JAPAN END UP IN THIS SITUATION? There are a number of reasons contributing to the ‘explosion’ in seniors in Japan with the increased life expectancy of citizens being the most obvious. According to the World Health Organisation, on average Japanese people are now expected to live until 84.2 years (Men 81.1 years, and women 87.1 years.) and the trend is going up. The following tables illustrate the effect of the baby boomer population over the past 70 years, and clearly show the tapering-off of the population in recent years. Japanese population/demographic chart – 1947 Post War Baby Boom Males Male Surplus Females Female surplus Japan’s new demographic paradigm is having all sorts of impacts on the traditional economic and social models. Most notably, the shrinking workforce is forcing the government and industry to look at new ways to use robotics and automation to not only keep the economy chugging along, but more importantly to help care and support the ever increasing retired/senior sector of society. The impacts of the social change are being most harshly felt in the rural and regional areas of Japan with most young people being attracted to the lure of big- city life in one of Japan’s many large urban centres. This is having a dramatic impact on population numbers and the ongoing viability of many small communities is being brought into question. (Source: Wikipedia) Japanese population/demographic chart – 1970 Males Male Surplus Females Female surplus It is an unprecedented scenario, and the way Japan handles it will provide a wealth of learning to the rest of the world. The government is being optimistic and see it as a chance to drive change that will see the country evolve into Society 5.0 which is Japan’s vision for a human-centred society that will represent the next evolution of human-kind. There’s a lot to unpack in that future vision, but first let’s look at how Japan got to its current situation. (Source: Wikipedia) VOL.12 NO.1 2019 | 33