ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT QUARTERLY
JAPAN’S NEW
DEMOGRAPHIC
PARADIGM –
TOWARDS SOCIETY
5.0
BY BRUCE MARSHALL
It doesn’t take too much analysis to come to the
conclusion that Japan has the highest percentage
of elderly citizens compared to any other country in
the world. Off the back of a post-World War II baby
boom, Japan reached peak population of 128 million
people in 2010. Since that peak approximately 1.34
million less people now reside in Japan and trends
suggest that the population decline is only going to
continue. Without intervention, forecasts predict the
population to shrink to 88 million people by the year
2060, a potential decrease of 40 million people in 50
years!
Currently 27.4% of the population is aged over 65.
Conversely only 12.3% of the current population
is under the age of 15 with the balance of the
population between 16-65 making up the remaining
60%. By comparison Australia’s population is made
up of 18.9% (0-14), 66.2% (15-64) and 14.9% (65+).
SO HOW DID JAPAN END UP IN THIS
SITUATION?
There are a number of reasons contributing to the
‘explosion’ in seniors in Japan with the increased life
expectancy of citizens being the most obvious.
According to the World Health Organisation, on
average Japanese people are now expected to live
until 84.2 years (Men 81.1 years, and women 87.1
years.) and the trend is going up. The following
tables illustrate the effect of the baby boomer
population over the past 70 years, and clearly show
the tapering-off of the population in recent years.
Japanese population/demographic chart – 1947
Post War Baby Boom
Males
Male Surplus
Females
Female surplus
Japan’s new demographic paradigm is having
all sorts of impacts on the traditional economic
and social models. Most notably, the shrinking
workforce is forcing the government and industry to
look at new ways to use robotics and automation
to not only keep the economy chugging along, but
more importantly to help care and support the ever
increasing retired/senior sector of society. The
impacts of the social change are being most harshly
felt in the rural and regional areas of Japan with
most young people being attracted to the lure of big-
city life in one of Japan’s many large urban centres.
This is having a dramatic impact on population
numbers and the ongoing viability of many small
communities is being brought into question.
(Source: Wikipedia)
Japanese population/demographic chart – 1970
Males
Male Surplus
Females
Female surplus
It is an unprecedented scenario, and the way
Japan handles it will provide a wealth of learning
to the rest of the world. The government is being
optimistic and see it as a chance to drive change
that will see the country evolve into Society 5.0
which is Japan’s vision for a human-centred society
that will represent the next evolution of human-kind.
There’s a lot to unpack in that future vision, but first
let’s look at how Japan got to its current situation.
(Source: Wikipedia)
VOL.12 NO.1 2019 | 33