Economic Challenger Issue 90 Jan-Mar 2021 Issue 90 Jan-Mar 2021 | Page 6

goods and services dependent on customer mobility fell . This twin supply-demand shock on output subsequently led to the loss of income , which caused a further decline in consumption resulting in further output loss . Owing to these unprecedented COVID-19 induced supply-demand shocks , the IMF ' s June 2020 WEO update projects growth of India ' s output at ( - ) 4.5 percent in 2020-21 and that of the world ' s ( - ) 4.9 percent . The indicators are auto sales , tractor sales , fertilizer sales , railway freight traffic , steel consumpt ion and product ion , cement production , power consumption , e-way bills , GST revenue collection , daily toll collections on highways , retail financial transactions , manufacturing PMI the performance of core industries , capital inflows and exports . India ' s manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index ( PMI ) at 52.2 moved into the expansionary zone in August for the first time since the lockdown , presenting much-required recovery prospects for the manufacturing sector . A V-shaped growth means a sharp surge in India ' s economic activity in the second and third quarters of the ongoing fiscal . A ‘ V- shaped ’ economic recovery is a sharp rebound in growth for successive quarters after an equally sharp decline . “ India is witnessing a V-shaped recovery as the economy unlocks after the COVID-19 necessitated lockdown ”, Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said .

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Das , Koustav ( 2020 ) concludes that Many government officials have said that India ' s economy is witnessing a V-shaped recovery after performing dismally in the first quarter of

2020-21 . Kwatra , Nikita ( 2020 ) finds that 10 of the 16 high-frequency indicators considered in Mint ' s macro tracker were in the red in August , marking an improvement over the previous three months . Sheel , Alok ( 2020 ) assess that since the Covid crisis comes on top of an ongoing downturn , the recovery might look more like the famous Nike logo , with the V tending to flatten out as the economy grows at a lower trend . Mazumdar , Rumki ( 2020 ) puts a question that after reporting a steep drop in GDP , can India turn crisis into opportunity and emerge stronger on the other side of the pandemic ?

( India Economic Outlook | Deloitte Insights .)

Joe C Mathew ( 2020 ) quotes Bajaj saying that while India ' s GDP will shrink this year , it will be a ' V ' shaped recovery next year unless COVID- 19 hits the country very hard , which is highly unlikely . Mohanty , Prasanna ( 2020 ) are of the opinion that several critical high-frequency indicators show that in August and September , the improvements noticed in June and July reversed ; high-frequency data , in any case , tells the story of the organized sector but not unorganized sector contributing 45 % to GDP The paper ' s objective is to show that India ' s economy and its macro indicators are on the recovery path and the V shape of the recovery . Keeping this view in mind , the paper is divided into three sections . Section I highlights that Global economic recovery is taking place in V- shape . Section II examines the shape of the Indian economy and its macro indicators , and Section III contains concluding remarks .

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Economic Challenger // ISSN 0975-1351 / Issue 90 , January-March 2021