New I-526 Petitions Pending Processing
2018 (JAN–OCT) 852
FY 2017 627
FY 2016 136
FY 2015 14
FY 2012–13 3
FY 2015 1
Source: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Working%20in%20the%20US/i526list.pdf
I n s t i t u t e ’s e s t i m a t e o f a 15 1- y e a r w a i t i n g p e r i o d
for green card applications filed by Indians with an
advanced degree.
Yet, the current trend of I-526 petition approval by 18-24
months, the two-year wait for I-829 petition filing, and
the two-year average processing period for green card
applications is unlikely to sustain in the future.
While the initial impact of visa retrogression may not
exceed , at least in the initial stage, a few months,
processing times are likely to rise quickly as more H-1B
visa holders, Indian investors, and parents of youngsters
desirous of studying in the U.S. opt for the EB-5 visa route.
LONG-PENDING INCREASE
IN MINIMUM INVESTMENT
With India likely joining China and Vietnam on the visa
retrogression list, an increase in the minimum investment
requirement—unchanged at $1 million ($500,000 for TEAs)
since the program’s inception—seems inevitable.
While there is no clarity on what the actual increase will
look like, an Obama-era proposal
sought to hike the minimum
t h r e s h o l d t o $ 1. 8 m i l l i o n a n d
$1.35 million for non-TEA and TEA
projects.
What complicates matters for Indian
investors is that the Indian Rupee is,
after years of outperforming other
currencies, is steadily depreciating
towards its Real E xchange Rate
levels.
While exchange rate fluctuation
is a risk in he re n t in all fo re ig n
investments, it will magnif y the
overall impact of the investment
increase for applicants from India.
Lack of clarity on the long-term future of the regional center
program exacerbates the uncertainty caused by the long-
pending increase in minimum investment requirements.
Considering that more and more Indians are viewing the
EB-5 route as a faster and more reliable route to the U.S.
green card as compared to the H-1B visa or other EB-
category visas, any unexpected or drastic change in rules
and regulations can dampen enthusiasm for the U.S.
investment immigration visa.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE ‘AT-RISK
INVESTMENT’ REQUIREMENT
Unlike China, most of Indian demand for the EB-5 visa
comes from those already living in the U.S. As EB-5 visa
demand spreads to India, applicants will have to be made to
understand the complexity of the entire EB-5 process.
The fact that it is often viewed and praised as a faster
alternative to the H-1B visa indicates that the average
Indian applicant is not yet well versed with the nuances
of the program and implications of the at-risk investment
requirement.
Ensuring Indian investors, especially those from beyond
the big Metro cities, recognize that the initial investment
is always at the risk of loss and that there is no assurance
or guarantee of the green card is very important and very
challenging.
Indians residing in the U.S. may appreciate the complexities
involved in setting up and running a business in compliance
with all the investment, job creation, and other requirements
mandated by the EB-5 visa.
"What complicates
matters for Indian
investors is that the
Indian Rupee is, after
years of outperforming
other currencies, is
steadily depreciating
towards its Real
Exchange Rate levels"
POLICY UNCERTAINTY
Between 1992 and 2015, the Regional Center Pilot Program
had a total of eight extensions. Including the one that
extended the program’s validity till Dec. 7. 2018, there
114 EB5 INVESTORS M AGAZINE
have been 13 extensions in a span of just over three years
between September 2015 and December 2018.
Indian demand for the EB -5 visa
will sustain and grow only if this
awareness spreads to investors
residing in India as well.
LOW APPROVAL RATES
Historically, approval rates for EB-5
applications from India have been
much lower than the global average.
One reason for this low approval
rate, said to be around 60-65 percent
as compared to the global average
of 90 percent, is the average Indian
investor’s preference for the direct
investment route as compared to the
regional center investment route to qualify for the EB-5 visa.
The success of a direct investment project often depends on
various factors like the existing business environment, the
applicant’s business acumen, and extent to which the venture
is designed to comply with the EB-5 visa requirements.