Drink Asia March-April 2020 | Page 39

D airy milk has a serious contender to its throne. In fact, it seems to have a bevy of them and the competition appears to be growing in number by the day. The $400bn dairy industry, with more than 274 million cows worldwide, has seen the popularity of milk rapidly dropping in the last few years as consumer demand for alternative milks (or ‘mylk’, if subject to EU law dictating that ‘milk’ can only be used for the product produced by a lactating mammal) has soared. According to research from Mintel, non-dairy milk sales grew by 61 percent from 2012-17 in the US while traditional milk sales dropped by 15 percent. Meanwhile, efforts to use up surplus milk by turning it into (previously) ever-popular cheese are also coming up against the reality of dairy demand declining as a whole. Combine this with ongoing trade disputes between Trump and countries such as China, and reporting in late December 2018 showed that the stockpile of cheese had hit its highest number since recording began a century ago. With consumer demand shifting so signifi cantly, and economic factors putting a dent in other avenues, it would appear that the dairy industry is staring down the barrel of a rough few years. What may lie ahead? DAIRY 2.0 ADAPTING THE DAIRY INDUSTRY TO THE CHANGING MARKET The competition: plant- based milks eat into dairy’s consumer base One reality that the industry must contend with is that dairy milk consumption, and narratives around it, are largely Western-centric. While we are naturally (on the whole) able to break down lactose at birth due to the lactase enzyme, production of that enzyme declines in the majority of humans after weaning. The mutation that allows Northern Europeans (along with a handful of smaller groups) to continue digesting Drink Asia 39 lactose into adulthood is comparatively rare on a global scale; in fact, two-thirds of all adults worldwide are considered lactose intolerant. Even before considering the rise of brands such as Oatly, Alpro and the like, dairy milk producers are placed at the disadvantage of several regional markets having already invested in plant milks such as soya for centuries. Oatly, probably the most notable oat milk brand, announced last year that it was increasing production by 1,250 percent from the March-April 2020 same time last year; in spring of 2018 the entire US, along with the UK and Sweden, suffered shortages of the brand as consumer demand has rapidly outstripped production capability. Meanwhile, Mintel found that although the UK has seen plant-based milk sales rise by a third from 2015- 17, the sale of traditional milk had only increased by 5 percent. Increasingly popular in particular among younger consumers, non- dairy brands offer a product that has potentially broader