of relations between developed and developing countries,
and the “hypothesis of the deterioration of the terms of
trade” with regard to the evolution of relative prices between
primary and industrialized products. In terms of public
policy recommendations, substitutive industrialization of
imports was favored, as well as the economic integration of
the countries of the region, in order to gain production scale
and effi ciency.
The economic rise of great Asian countries such as China
and India has led to a noticeable change in the global economic
and fi nancial axis. Formerly located in the North Atlantic,
with a few cases of rapid growth and development in Asia
(Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore), commercial and
fi nancial exchange has doubled its focal points incorporating
the North Pacifi c and the Eastern Indian Ocean. This global
geo-economic change has generated a renewed bias in the
economies of Latin America, including Argentina, towards
the deepening of its inter-industry trading patterns, based
mainly on the export of raw materials and manufactured
products with a high factorial content of natural resources
(CEPAL, 2013).
While it is conceivable that countries with an abundance
of natural resources can follow more complex production and
trade patterns -such as the United States, Canada or Australia-
and reach high levels of economic and social development,
the fact is that in the past this has been the exception rather
than the rule in Latin America (Massot et al., 2015).
Argentina-India merchandise exchange is one of the best
examples of patterns based on the exchange of very diff erent
kind of goods.
Table 1 shows the Argentine case with some partner
exchange of merchandises in 2015. It can be seen that
Argentine exports to Asian countries are concentrated in a
Table 1. Exchange of merchandise concentration by
chapters. Argentina 2015.
Chapter at 80%
India
Exports Imports
1 13
China 2 9
ASEAN 2 10
Japan 6 5
EU 9 11
Russia 5 2
SA 4 8
US 16 9
Brazil 12 11
Chile 19 15
Average 7,6 9,3
General / Total 17 14
Source: Own elaboration based on Secretariat of Commerce Database of
Argentina.
12
few trade chapters, in particular, oilseeds and vegetable oil.
In the case of India, only one chapter concentrates more than
80% of exports.
Grubel-Lloyd Index is shown in Table 2. It can be seen
that Argentina has an interindustrial pattern of trade with the
vast majority of its trade partners, including India. Argentine
exports are basically natural resource-based, meanwhile,
imports are the industrial manufacturer.
Table 2. Grubel-Lloyd Index. Argentina 2015
Country Partner
India
Grubel-Lloyd Index
0,049
China 0,029
ASEAN 0.048
Japan 0,053
EU 0,135
Russia 0,022
SA 0,174
US 0,293
Brazil 0,590
Chile 0,280
Average 0,167
General / Total 0,333
Source: Own elaboration based on Secretariat of Commerce Database of
Argentina.
In 2017, for instance, more than 90% of the Argentine
exports to India are vegetable oils; in addition, more than 50%
of Argentine vegetable oil is destined to India, and around
50% of Indian imports of soybean oil are from Argentina.
Argentine imports from India are more diversifi ed; despite
the vast majority are manufactured goods.
However, other features of the Argentine exchange with
Asian countries emerge from current fi gures. In spite of the
global merchandise balance with Asia is negative, Argentina
has a surplus with some countries. Trade surplus and defi cits
with Asia are shown in Table 3. First, the Argentine defi cit
with Asia is determined by defi cit with China (81%). Second,
Argentine has a relevant surplus with some Asian countries,
like Vietnam and India. Finally, the merchandise defi cit
with China is larger than the total trade surplus with Asian
countries with a negative balance with Argentina.
Regarding those facts, and based on the Argentine
economic history, some questions emerge about the future
of the bilateral relations.
Challenging the past and the facts
The international economic changes stemmed from the
undoubted growth of Asian economies has raised a series of
questions about the development of some Latin American
countries that have achieved a relatively complex and
articulated industrial structure, such as Argentina.