Diplomatist Magazine DIplomatist September 2018 | Page 18

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland, left, Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo and U.S.
Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speak to the media during the seventh round of NAFTA talks.
to conclude the NAFTA negotiations and discuss a stronger
cooperation with the US in terms of trade and other key issues
such as migration and security. Although the letter explicitly
mentioned Canada i , 5 days after the receipt Trump announced
the possibility of a separate agreement with Mexico since he
and Obrador were 'doing great' ii , and that an agreement with
Canada would be reached at a later stage. While judging
whether Mexico surreptitiously let that happen, silently
stabbing Canada in the back, is a matter of interpretation
(or journalistic investigation), the re-alignment between the
US and Mexico suggests the two countries need each other
and the NAFTA affair offered a chance to reunite. In fact,
in Obrador's letter there is a direct reference to a proposed
stronger effort to improve living and working conditions in
Mexico and therefore keep the US-bound emigration down.
This would of course offer a wider leeway for Trump to claim
'another' success in his immigration policy, and Obrador to
achieve positive economic results. On the other side, Trump
still needs Mexico as a fundamental partner, regardless of how
tough he has been playing on it lately, and Mexico needs a
renegotiated trade agreement to facilitate the aforementioned
goals.
On the other side of the barricade, Ottawa has a much harder
battle to fi ght. Anticipated by acrimonious mutual remarks
(also manifested during the inconclusive NATO Summit iii last
July), the political clash between Trump and Trudeau seems
to have touched the point of no return with respect to NAFTA
renegotiation, with Trump threatening to leave Canada out of
the new agreement and Trudeau fi rmly not retreating against
such harbingers of trade war. While the bilateral talks with
Mexico largely aimed at striking a more advantageous deal for
automakers – regarding which many warned against potentially
severe backlashes for the industry iv , the tricky point for Canada
remains the access to the dairy market. An inescapable issue, the
dairy farmers represent a strong component of the republican
consensus, but also an ‘untouchable’ backbone in Ontario and
Quebec. v The question now is whether Trudeau will allow a
reform of the dairy market to untangle the negotiation deadlock
and likely expose himself to a wave of protests – just one
year away from the 2019 federal elections. Trudeau has often
repeated that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, conscious of
the risks that threaten the dairy market and seems committed
to protect the Canadian farmers. Jacques Lefebvre, CEO of the
Dairy Farmers of Canada, recently argued that surrendering
18 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 9 • September 2018, Noida