Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist October 2019

SPECIAL REPORT The Way Ahead in Indo-Russian Ties T Dr Raj Kumar Sharma* he world order is facing turbulence as America’s fierce self-interest and nationalism tries to ‘Trump’ other countries and in such unpredictable times, it is important for India to take stock of its most important relationship in international politics – that with Russia. India- Russia relations owe their traditional warmth and bonhomie to the Cold War geopolitics of the 1950s but the multi-polar world of 2019 is diﬀ erent from the bipolar one that lasted from late 1940s to 1991. India’s policy of non-alignment which had ideological undertones seems to be giving way to a policy where New Delhi is moving towards ‘issue-based’ alignments. In a sense, India is multi- aligned with countries like the US, Russia, China, France, Japan and others depending on its national interest. Compared to the Cold War era, India’s relations may have vastly improved with the US but New Delhi-Moscow ties have shown a great amount of stability and resilience in the changing geopolitical environment. For Eurasia to be truly multi-polar, a strong relationship between India and Russia is a given. There was a crisis in India-Russia relationship in 1991 when the mighty Soviet Union disintegrated and both countries were trying to adjust to the realities of new world order. The relationship has stabilised, especially after President Vladimir Putin assumed oﬃ ce in 2000. There have been minor hiccups but they have not disturbed the overall fabric of this bond. Despite the looming threat of US sanctions, defenceties are steady as is evident by recent military agreements between the two sides. In the contemporary context, there are two notable issues in India-Russia ties when compared to their Cold War relationship – lack of depth in economic and cultural spheres. Hence, the way ahead for India-Russia relations has to focus on these two areas. As India hopes to be a $ 5 trillion economy by 2024, India-Russia trade links should further expand so that both the sides beneﬁ t. In recent years, trade between the two countries has been around $ 10 billion, India’s least with a P-5 country. In comparison, India-US trade is over $ 100 billion. Both countries are absent in their respective list of top 15 trading partners. They account for a meagre 1 percent of each other’s total trade volume. 30 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 10 • October 2019, Noida A strategic bilateral relationship between major powers cannot be sustained without a strong economic content and it is the economics that brings strategic character to the relationship in most cases. The good political ties between India and Russia are not reﬂ ected in their economic links. Even with a country like China that is India’s foremost security concern, New Delhi has more to trade than with a ‘time-tested’ friend like Russia. The Western sanctions have, to some extent, made Russia dependent on China which has strategic implications for India. Expansion of India Russia trade could lessen Moscow’s dependence on Beijing to an extent. Russia too, under its Greater Eurasian Partnership believes that China should not become a hegemon in Eurasia and cooperation with India allows Russia to achieve this aim. Connectivity is one of the main problems that hinder India-Russia trade. Russian ﬁ rms import goods from China or Europe as transport takes one or two weeks compared to 40-50 days from India. This could change as the two sides are working to solve the connectivity issue mainly through the Interna North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) that is 40 per cent shorter and 30 per cent cheaper than the present Suez route. There is a need to expedite the free trade negotiations between India and Russia steered Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Once ﬁ nalized, the FTA with EEU aided by INSTC could increase India-EEU trade from $9 billion to anything between $ 37-62 billion. Indian policymakers are also looking for the feasibility of Chennai-Vladivostok sea route that could allow India to access Russia’s Far East. This route would potentially add required balance to peace and prosperity in the South China Sea and could open new vistas for India, like India-Russia- Vietnam trilateral cooperation and energy imports from the Arctic. With its investment friendly approach and vast reserves of natural resources, Far East has the potential to strengthen India-Russia economic partnership in areas like energy, tourism, agriculture, fisheries, education, hospitality, pharmaceuticals, diamond mining, cutting and polishing and alternative energy etc. 32 percent of all the investments in Russia are in the Far East region and 17 countries have already invested in

Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist October 2019 | Page 30