Erdogan opened his
speech with condolences
to not just the family
and friends of the
Saudi journalist, but
to the ‘media world’
as well. This is ironic
coming from the leader
of a government that
has imprisoned more
journalists than any
other place in the world.
coalition against Shia Iran. Erdogan’s
animosity toward Riyadh is driven
by radically diff erent perspectives
on the role of Islam in the future
of the Middle East. He is a deeply
devout and religious man with a
plan to further Islam in Turkey and
hoped that like-minded governments
across the region would embrace
the oppressed Islamists who sought
to overthrow despotic regimes in a
pro-democratic wave. His links to
the Muslim Brotherhood movement
go back a long way but have grown
stronger in the wake of the Arab
Spring in the late 2010. Erdogan
wants to position himself as the
leader of a new Middle East. This is
a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia, the
leader of the old Middle East and an
avowed enemy of the Brotherhood.
Turkey’s impassioned backing
of Mohamed Morsi, and other
Brotherhood inspired movements
created a kind of regional anti-
Erdogan bloc led by the Saudis,
General El Sisi of Egypt and
the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed
bin Zayed. Gulf monarchies and
dictatorships have long seen Muslim
movements as existential threats
and potentially disruptive to the
established order.
Further, in 2017, when bin Salman
unveiled a bold agenda of “returning
the kingdom of Saudi Arabia to moderate Islam”, the most
surprising attack came from Erdogan. At an international
conference he attacked the crown prince with “He does not own
Islam”. In doing so Erdogan was also rejecting the unoffi cial
but long-standing Saudi claim as the guardian of Islam.
Lastly, Turkey’s impending economic crisis and the role
of that cannot be negated. Ankara has an enormous amount of
dollar denomination debt. They need hard currency, foreign
exchange, investment opportunities and other economic
reliefs. All of which Saudi Arabia and much of the Gulf
countries can provide since currently Ankara is dependent
on countries with liquidity. Erdogan is adamant on not going
to the IMF or European allies to seek assistance and aid. It
is for this reason also that Turkey will continue to milk the
Khashoggi investigation for all its worth.
Changing Regional Dynamics
Ankara and Riyadh are on diff erent political trajectories
with the divisions not being limited
to just Islam, but also to the changing
geopolitical strongholds. For
decades, Turkey stayed out of the
region’s politics. As secular state, a
member of the NATO and a candidate
for the European Union membership,
it was seeking deeper integration into
the West. With Erdogan’s version
of political Islam, the change in
focus towards the Middle East
was an inevitability. This has led
to uncomfortable alliances and
partnerships. In June 2017, the Saudi
led trade and diplomatic blockade of
Qatar resulted in the country seeking
help from Turkey. Ankara readily
deployed troops in a show of force
to help ensure that the Saudis would
not invade. Erdogan has also found
a way of simultaneously competing
and coordinating with Shia Iran in
its alliance with Russia against the
Saudis in Syria and Yemen, resulting
in being accused by bin Salman as
being part of the “triangle of evil”.
Saudi’s arch rival though seems
to gain plenty from this chaos. In
a March interview with TIME, the
crown prince had declared, “Any
problem in the Middle East, you will
fi nd Iran.” Well, not this one. Tehran
has received political ammunition
and a moral high ground at a time
when foreign leaders widely criticize
the regime for being the main source of instability in the
region. Riyadh has gone to great lengths to isolate Tehran,
from holding the Lebanese Prime Minister hostage, to
building ties with Israel and punishing Qatar for its proximity
to the Islamic Republic. For now, the Iranians are quietly
savoring the sight of their foe cast in the role of a barbarian
and making it even harder to portray Iran as the ultimate
villain
Although, it is unlikely that there will occur a reframe
in the political order across the region and undermine
Saudi Arabia’s authority. A number of regional allies have
sent messages of support for the Kingdom. Offi cials from
Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, the
Palestinian National Authority, the UAE and Yemen have
expressed their backing for Riyadh and were quick to defend
it with an apparently coordinated series of responses, further
affi rming Saudi’s role as the leading Muslim power in the
Arab World.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida • 9