INSIDE EUROPE
interests and their proxy competition in this fragile region.
With a high percentage of unemployment, including amongst
the youth; communal insecurities and poor economic
conditions; Bosnia, along with the region, becomes a
breeding ground for two important problems which will
impact both Russia and the US—radicalization leading to
terrorism and refugee crisis. There are reports about the
spread of Saudi Arabia’s conservative Islam (Salafi sm which
is followed by Islamic State, Al Qaeda etc.) in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Taking into consideration the brittle condition within
Bosnia and Herzegovina, along with the rest of the countries
in the Balkan, the major powers should be careful. The
IS which was defeated in Syria and Mosul have spread to
other countries. Russia is concerned about these terrorists
becoming active in its neighbourhood. In August, IS had
claimed responsibility of multiple attacks in Chechnya. What
makes them more frightening is that these terrorist groups
have aligned with ‘home grown’ terrorist groups. Therefore,
Russia should be prudent when playing with fi re.
Meanwhile, President Dodik, who is working closely with
Russia, has been wanting to be within the good books of US
President Donald Trump. During the November mid-term
elections in America, Presdient Dodik was found mentioning
to the US Serbs to vote for the Trump administration. One of
the plausible explanations is that President Dodik wants to
get off the sanctions list which the US has imposed on him
since 2017.
Though he leans closer to Russia, President Dodick would
want to balance US too – for his own benefi t, as well as for his
government. However, the balancing act has to be far-sighted,
and wise too; otherwise it has capability to burn not only the
country but the West too, including Russia. Already, Bosnia,
under President Dodik, is becoming a breeding ground for a
great tussle between Russia and the US; radicalism/terrorism,
secessionism etc. Russia and the US must abstain from
playing their cards as the world does not need a revival of the
1999 Kosovo crisis. If this kind of a crisis is repeated, then
this time, it would not be restricted to the states but would
also see the involvement of non-state actors.
* Dr. Indrani Talukdar is a Research Fellow at ICWA,
New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are that of the author’s and not
of the Council.
References:
1 Russia has been accused of interfering in the elections
of the West including the 2016 US presidential elections.
2 The Kremlin is being accused of its support to President
Dodik for his secessionist policies.
3 If a 2014 Ukrainian revolution backed by the West has
to take place in the Balkans then the probability of a Russian
interference stands high. An open Donbass might not happen
but chances are there where Russia’s green army (who helped
in Crimea) might help the RS.
4 However, Russia should be careful. It is facing a crisis
in its home after Ingushetia is protesting against a land swap
deal with Chechnya.
5 The Trump administration has placed sanctions on
President Dodick for corruption and other issues.
i “Lavrov Says Russia Won't Interfere in Bosnia Oct. 7
Election”, US News, September 2018, https://www.usnews.
com/news/world/articles/2018-09-21/lavrov-says-russia-
wont-interfere-in-bosnia-oct-7-election
ii It seems that whenever elections are imminent in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, President Dodik is seen to visit the
Russian president. Zorica Lilic, “Russia’s Balkan power
games on show ahead of elections”, DW, October 6, 2018.
https://www.dw.com/en/russias-balkan-power-games-on-
show-ahead-of-elections/a-45781149
iii “Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy in Russia
and Europe: Implications for U.S. National Security”, A
Minority Staff Report Prepared for the Use of the Committee
on Foreign Relations United States Senate (One Hundred
Fifteenth Congress: Second Session), January 10, 2018
, pg.86. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/
FinalRR.pdf
iv James Ker-Lindsay, “The False Threat of Secession
in Bosnia”, Balkan Insight, May 4, 2016. http://www.
balkaninsight.com/en/article/the-false-threat-of-secession-
in-bosnia-05-02-2016
v Russia is being accused of sending Russian-trained
mercenaries are helping to establish a paramilitary unit
serving President Dodik. Julian Borger, “Russian-trained
mercenaries back Bosnia's Serb separatists”, The Guardian,
January 12, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/
jan/12/russian-trained-mercenaries-back-bosnias-serb-
separatists
vi “Assessing Russia’s Economic Footprint in Bosnia and
Herzegovina”, Policy Brief No. 74, Centre for the Study of
Democracy, January 2018. fi le:///C:/Users/Dr%20Indrani/
Downloads/CSD_Policy_Brief_74_BiH%20(1).pdf
vii “Saudi Arabia's increasing infl uence in Bosnia and
Herzegovina”, France 24, November 13, 2018. https://
www.france24.com/en/20181113-focus-bosnia-herzegovina-
saudi-arabia-gulf-tourists-infl uence-business-investments-
islam.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida • 17