Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019 | Page 41

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE monumental, but taken together, constitute the pieces of an immaculate, expansive jigsaw. There are multiple parties and considerations, spanning a set of interests. For that reason, scholars and former practitioners of diplomacy have come to the conclusion that any resolution to the situation must involve several discrete steps taken over time and crowned by some grand security guarantee. A key proponent of this view is former National Security Council member Morton Halperin, who has been nursing notions of an interlocking series of arrangements and assurances that will neutralise hostility and create an enduring peace. Any comprehensive talks will have to address these, and this summit was evidently not going to do that. The tendency of much commentary on the subject has been to leap on one issue, ignoring the others. But to only see one or two pieces in isolation (abductees, for instance, or the issue of exclusive, verifi able and irreversible denuclearisation) is to ignore the numbers of steps in the entire aff air. Trust needs to be restored, a peace treaty neutering the war status of the Peninsula signed, undertakings against the use of force and hostile intent made with heft, and ultimately, an understanding that the parties at the negotiating table aren’t going to bump you off . Pyongyang is being asked to relinquish its highest grade insurance in the face of a superpower which has shown more than an unhealthy tendency to infl ict regime changes with catastrophic consequences. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 by US-led forces, and the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime in Libya in 2011, are seen as seminal lessons in history for those who do not have some form of lethal deterrence. Brinkmanship and theories of managed lunacy in the diplomatic realm will only get you to a point. Despite the public breakdown of talks, respective sides are still mindful of not being too provocative. (Or, if so, just a little less than usual.) The annual and customarily huge military drills between the ROK and the US known as Key Resolve and Foal Eagle have been cancelled, as per the announcement of March 3. Instead, they have been replaced by unit level training, a concession that still irked the Korean Central News Agency (KNCA, March 7), which considered the move “a wanton violation of the DPRK-US joint statement and the north-south declarations in which the removal of hostility and tensions were committed to.” Not to be outdone, Pyongyang may also be supplying its own teasing moves, dismantling and restoring simultaneously. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency and South Korean intelligence sources have claimed that the DPRK’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station at the Tongchang-RI site has been partly restored. “I would be very, very disappointed in Chairman Kim,” responded Trump to the revelations, “and don’t think I will be.” With Trump being advised by the likes of the gun-slinging Bolton (known in North Korean circles as the paternal inspiration for Pyongyang’s nuclear program) and Kim ever mindful about the vulnerabilities of his regime, more walkouts are bound to happen before anything concrete is decided upon. As nuclear non-proliferation pundit Jeff rey Lewis rightly noted in Foreign Policy (Feb 26), the old guard (Bolton and company) represent “the cold wind” of the old guard and “pretty much the rest of the government bureaucracy”, sceptical of supplying any concessions to Pyongyang. The warmth of reform in securing peace on the Korean Peninsula spurred on by the fanning of South Korea’s reformist leader Moon Jae-in and the groundwork from the likes of Biegun, act as moderating counters. The logistics of negotiations on the second day in Hanoi became evident when Biegun was banished to the back seat – quite literally – of the diplomatic table. Both Bolton and Pompeo took precedence, sparking suspicion from Korea watchers such as Christine Ahn of the Women Cross DMZ activist group (Newsweek, Feb 28), that “something fi shy” was afoot. The fi shiness had the fi nal say. As matters stand, there will be no resumption of North Korean ballistic and nuclear testing, and a promise for more negotiations, amidst the usual round of theatrical recriminations for domestic audiences. The chatter will continue, and channels will remain open. As for Trump himself, “This wasn’t a walkaway like you get up and walk out. No, this was very friendly. We shook hands.”  *The author was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: [email protected] Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 3 • March 2019, Noida • 41