Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019 | Page 41
GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
monumental, but taken together, constitute the pieces of an
immaculate, expansive jigsaw. There are multiple parties and
considerations, spanning a set of interests. For that reason,
scholars and former practitioners of diplomacy have come
to the conclusion that any resolution to the situation must
involve several discrete steps taken over time and crowned
by some grand security guarantee. A key proponent of this
view is former National Security Council member Morton
Halperin, who has been nursing notions of an interlocking
series of arrangements and assurances that will neutralise
hostility and create an enduring peace.
Any comprehensive talks will have to address these, and
this summit was evidently not going to do that. The tendency
of much commentary on the subject has been to leap on one
issue, ignoring the others. But to only see one or two pieces
in isolation (abductees, for instance, or the issue of exclusive,
verifi able and irreversible denuclearisation) is to ignore the
numbers of steps in the entire aff air.
Trust needs to be restored, a peace treaty neutering the war
status of the Peninsula signed, undertakings against the use
of force and hostile intent made with heft, and ultimately, an
understanding that the parties at the negotiating table aren’t
going to bump you off . Pyongyang is being asked to relinquish
its highest grade insurance in the face of a superpower which
has shown more than an unhealthy tendency to infl ict regime
changes with catastrophic consequences. The invasion of
Iraq in 2003 by US-led forces, and the overthrow of the
Qaddafi regime in Libya in 2011, are seen as seminal lessons
in history for those who do not have some form of lethal
deterrence. Brinkmanship and theories of managed lunacy
in the diplomatic realm will only get you to a point.
Despite the public breakdown of talks, respective sides are
still mindful of not being too provocative. (Or, if so, just a little
less than usual.) The annual and customarily huge military
drills between the ROK and the US known as Key Resolve
and Foal Eagle have been cancelled, as per the announcement
of March 3. Instead, they have been replaced by unit level
training, a concession that still irked the Korean Central News
Agency (KNCA, March 7), which considered the move “a
wanton violation of the DPRK-US joint statement and the
north-south declarations in which the removal of hostility
and tensions were committed to.”
Not to be outdone, Pyongyang may also be supplying its
own teasing moves, dismantling and restoring simultaneously.
South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency and South Korean
intelligence sources have claimed that the DPRK’s Sohae
Satellite Launching Station at the Tongchang-RI site has
been partly restored. “I would be very, very disappointed in
Chairman Kim,” responded Trump to the revelations, “and
don’t think I will be.”
With Trump being advised by the likes of the gun-slinging
Bolton (known in North Korean circles as the paternal
inspiration for Pyongyang’s nuclear program) and Kim ever
mindful about the vulnerabilities of his regime, more walkouts
are bound to happen before anything concrete is decided upon.
As nuclear non-proliferation pundit Jeff rey Lewis rightly
noted in Foreign Policy (Feb 26), the old guard (Bolton
and company) represent “the cold wind” of the old guard
and “pretty much the rest of the government bureaucracy”,
sceptical of supplying any concessions to Pyongyang. The
warmth of reform in securing peace on the Korean Peninsula
spurred on by the fanning of South Korea’s reformist leader
Moon Jae-in and the groundwork from the likes of Biegun,
act as moderating counters.
The logistics of negotiations on the second day in Hanoi
became evident when Biegun was banished to the back seat
– quite literally – of the diplomatic table. Both Bolton and
Pompeo took precedence, sparking suspicion from Korea
watchers such as Christine Ahn of the Women Cross DMZ
activist group (Newsweek, Feb 28), that “something fi shy”
was afoot. The fi shiness had the fi nal say.
As matters stand, there will be no resumption of North
Korean ballistic and nuclear testing, and a promise for
more negotiations, amidst the usual round of theatrical
recriminations for domestic audiences. The chatter will
continue, and channels will remain open. As for Trump
himself, “This wasn’t a walkaway like you get up and walk
out. No, this was very friendly. We shook hands.”
*The author was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn
College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University,
Melbourne. Email: [email protected]
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 3 • March 2019, Noida • 41