Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019 | Page 33

COVER STORY
SOUTH AFRICA
General Election: May 8
Another touchtone election for the continent will be South
Africa’s general and parliamentary elections from which
the president will be selected. As one of Africa’s leading
economies and advanced militaries, the elections in South
Africa will have ramifi cations for the rest of the continent.
In many ways, the South Africa polls will be an election
within an election. The ruling African National Congress
(ANC) remains the dominant political party in the country.
The question that will be answered at the polls is whether
after a series of corruption scandals, growing urban crime and
perceptions that the ANC has lost touch with ordinary South
Africans, the ANC still commands suffi cient trust among a
majority of the population. In municipal elections in 2016,
the ANC suff ered its worst electoral defeat since the end of
apartheid when it lost control of many cities, including the
political and business capitals-Pretoria and Johannesburg,
the legislative capital-Cape Town, and the industrial city of
Port Elizabeth.
The ANC has made signifi cant course corrections since
then with the replacement of former party leader and president
Jacob Zuma with Cyril Ramaphosa at the ANC National
Conference in December 2017. Ramaphosa has moved
decisively to distance the party from many of the abuses of
power associated with Zuma by instituting a series of reforms
to reinstate more transparency in party and government
practices. Through these actions, South Africa demonstrated
that its system of democratic checks and balances was strong
enough to rein in a populist leader willing to test the limits
of the rule of law.
There are also important regional security implications
from the elections in South Africa. Under Ramaphosa, South
Africa has begun reasserting its leadership within the Southern
African Development Community and the African Union on
issues of confl ict resolution and upholding democratic norms
in regional crises. These policies, as well as its position as a
standard bearer for the protection of human rights, have been
associated with South Africa since the presidency of Nelson
Mandela but had lapsed under Zuma. The former president’s
allies have resisted Ramaphosa’s reassertion of these foreign
policy initiatives, underscoring the regional consequences
from the South Africa elections.
MALAWI
General Election: May 21
Malawi’s general elections (for President, National
nal
Assembly, and local government offi cials) are gearing
g up
to be a hotly contested aff air as President Peter Mutharika
of the Democratic Progressive Party seeks a second term. He
faces stiff opposition from an array of candidates including
his vice president, Saulos Chilima, Lazarus Chakwera of the
Malawi Congress Party, and former president Joyce Banda’s
People’s Party. The shifting coalitions of opposition parties
attempting to unite to defeat Mutharika make this a highly
fl uid electoral environment.
Given that Malawi’s major political parties all draw
signifi cant popular support; the winner is likely to only
command a plurality of voters—as occurred in 2014.
This underscores the importance of the proposed reform
to adopt a 50 percent-plus-one formula for selecting the
president. Parties would then have incentives to build more
encompassing coalitions and electoral winners could then
benefi t from the legitimacy earned from having the support
of a majority of citizens.
How well Malawi’s Electoral
Commission manages the 2019
electoral process will provide a
yardstick for the rate of institutional
progress in one of southern Africa’s
historically most stable countries.
The 2014 election marked the milestone of an opposition
party taking power through a peaceful transition. That election
was consistent with Malawi’s reputation for stability and
built on the upholding of term limits in place since 2003.
Charges of corruption, nepotism, and anticipated vote-rigging
have contributed to a volatile atmosphere in the lead up to
the May elections. However, how well Malawi’s Electoral
Commission manages the 2019 electoral process will provide
a yardstick for the rate of institutional progress in one of
southern Africa’s historically most stable countries.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 3 • March 2019, Noida • 33