Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019

COVER STORY A frica is set to host two dozen national elections in 2019. This reﬂ ects a now established norm of elections as the recognized means for selecting African leaders. The conduct and outcomes of the 2019 elections, concentrated in west and southern Africa, will further shape the direction of Africa’s democratic trajectory. Here are some of the key issues to watch. BURKINA FASO Constitutional Referendum: March 24 Burkina Faso’s constitutional referendum largely focused on establishing a two-term limit for the presidency is an important step in the institutionalization process needed to advance democracy and therefore, deserves watching. The referendum is the outcome of reform eﬀ orts led by President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, elected in 2015 following the ouster of long-time autocratic leader Blaise Compaoré in 2014, after 27 years in oﬃ ce. While some have complained over the slow pace of change, the referendum demonstrates continuity in the reform eﬀ ort. Democratic transitions often lose steam in the months and years following the ouster of an authoritarian leader. That Burkina Faso has maintained the momentum for reform in the subsequent years is noteworthy as is the fact that it is the sitting president who is presiding over the establishment of these checks on the executive. Further progress is needed in other areas, including protections for civil society leaders such as Saﬁ atou Lopez, who awaits trial on what are widely seen as politically motivated charges after criticizing Kaboré. Nonetheless, the referendum should be recognized as an important step in the sustained and hard-fought eﬀ orts needed to create genuine democratic change. The referendum takes place as Burkina Faso faces a rapidly escalating threat from militant Islamist groups in the north and east. Burkina Faso faced 136 violent incidents involving militant Islamist groups in 2018—a quadrupling of the level seen in 2017. President Kaboré announced a state of emergency in 6 of the country’s 13 provinces on 31st December 2018, in response to the growing threat. The enhanced legitimacy that is likely to result from the referendum will be a valuable rallying force for strengthening citizen support to counter these militant Islamist groups, most notably the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. This will have to be complemented by more eﬀ ective economic and political engagement of marginalized communities and strengthening of Burkina Faso’s weak state capacities if the country is to eﬀ ectively arrest the spread of these violent extremist groups. COMOROS Presidential and Regional Elections: March 24 The presidential and regional elections in the small Indian Ocean islands nation of 800,000 people comes at a time of crisis for Comoros. In July 2018, President Azali Assoumani secured victory in a controversial referendum, boycotted by opposition parties that extended presidential term limits to two 5year terms. This deviates from the previous practice of rotating the presidency after 5year terms among the three main islands that comprise Comoros: Grande Comore, Anjouan, and Moheli. Assoumani suspended the Constitutional Court before the referendum, a move which opposition parties claim was illegitimate. Comoros has had 20 coups or attempts to seize power since it gained its independence from France in 1975. Nonetheless, the country has made signiﬁ cant progress in regularizing its democratic system of power-sharing since it adopted the rotating presidency formula in 2001. The current crisis is a setback to that momentum. The March elections will be a signiﬁ cant test of whether Comoros can regain its democratic trajectory or return to the instability that has characterized the politics of its early post-independence period. ALGERIA Presidential Election: April 18 The presidential election in Algeria is not anticipated to create much drama as the 81 81-year old President Abdelaziz Bouteﬂ ika, in power since 1999, is expected to contest for the 5th term in Algeria’s tightly controlled political process. Bouteﬂ ika, who has won the last four elections with an average of 83 percent of the vote has rarely been seen in public since experiencing a stroke in 2013. The military has been tightly intertwined in Algerian politics for many years, and Bouteﬂ ika’s ruling National Liberation Front party retains strong support from the military and business elite. Purging of a number of top military commanders in 2018 allowed military leaders to further consolidate their power before the election. 32 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 3 • March 2019, Noida

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