PERSPECTIVE
Over the last year and a half, Erdogan has managed to cultivate good relations with Russia’ s Putin, despite being on opposite sides of the Syrian confl ict. However, this has served to undermine Turkey ' s relations with the NATO and European countries
Turkish requirement. Yet, Turkey’ s neighbourhood is rich in oil and gas, possessing no less than 75 percent of the world ' s proven global reserves.
While Turkey is now emerging as a growing regional energy hub, with pipelines from Russia, Caucasia, the Gulf and other supply sources, its energy-import dependence is unsustainable. Although some investments in nuclear and alternative energy sources are being initiated, what Turkey desperately needs is a massive increase in hydrocarbon exploration on land and Turkish territorial waters.
Will Erdogan rise to the occasion? It is unlikely, because of foreign policy setbacks. Over the last year and a half, Erdogan has managed to cultivate good relations with Russia’ s Putin, despite being on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict. However, this has served to undermine Turkey ' s relations with the NATO and European countries. The EU-Turkey relationship has been in deep-freeze over the last few years with the seeming erosion of democracy in the latter through the gradual consolidation of power by Erdogan. After the 2016 coup, relations between the two side worsened. Many in Europe would have been happy to see a successful coup, either because of their sympathy with the Kurdish cause, Erdogan’ s authoritarian rule or, simply, Erdogan’ s abrasive style.
In 2015, the EU faced a major migration crisis. About 1 million refugees flooded into the EU territory via Turkey. In a panicked response, European leaders, notably Germany’ s Angela Merkel, reached a deal with the then Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu. Erdogan was sidelined during this process. In short order, Davutoglu fell from grace.
The EU deal, however, survived, mainly because Ankara kept its promise. Turkey, now, has become the largest refugeehosting nation in the world, spending more than $ 30 bn from the national budget on its refugee resettlement and integration program. The EU, unfortunately, failed to keep its side of the deal. To date, no visa liberalisation policy for Turkish citizens has been implemented. Nor has there been any progress on Turkey’ s application for membership of the EU. Further, only a fraction of the € 6 billion pledged to Turkey for hosting refugees has been paid so far.
In the meantime, Erdogan’ s crackdown on opponents after the coup, limits on press freedom, and his threat to bring back the death penalty, have all served to distance Ankara from Europe. Further, when Western‘ allies’ failed to sell arms to the Turkish armed forces or support Erdogan ' s offensive against the Western allied Kurdish YPG forces, Erdogan turned to Russia. In the past few months, Putin and Erdogan have found common ground for cooperation with regard to the situation in Syria as well as with regard to the construction of energy pipelines and a nuclear power plant to secure Turkey ' s energy needs.
Apart from its intervention in the Syrian conflict, the Cyprus conflict is a key Turkish foreign policy challenge. It is about far more than just reaching a settlement between the Turkish- and Greek-Cypriots on the island, based on the UN formula of power-sharing. Defining Turkish, Greek and Cypriot territorial waters and monetising east Mediterranean hydrocarbons has become a major dispute. Whether or not rationality will prevail, only time and geopolitical diplomacy will determine.
For the time being, Erdogan’ s Turkey remains locked in between a rock and a hard place. Turkish citizens, however, are patient, and it will not be the first time that they will be asked to make a painful sacrifice. Erdogan, it seems, is here to stay. And so, too, his authoritarian policies which are aimed at making Turkey a formidable power in the region, much like it was during its earlier iteration as the Ottoman Empire. In the end, however, Turkish democracy, the greatest legacy of Ataturk, is bound to survive Erdogan. As history shows, the rule of authoritarian leaders is not permanent. •
1
Quo vadis is a Latin phrase which translates to ' where are you going?' in English.
* The author is a Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Fellow, Modern Turkish Studies, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Canada.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 7 • July 2018, Noida • 39