Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist January 2019 | Page 36

PERSPECTIVE
of its geography is located at its epicentre. Some relevant
developments in our neighbourhood which impact India are
listed in the following paras.
Growing Chinese Strategic Interests, Ambitions and
Capabilities: There is a surge in China military and strategic
capabilities, riding high on its economic resurgence, These
are translating into its growing ambitions and interests. No
longer satisfi ed to be a continental power, China now has
clearly enunciated its policy of being a regional power by
2021 and a global power by 2049. The manifestations of
these are challenging the existing power structures globally.
For India the signs are already visible in our neighbourhood.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – Economic Outreach
in IOR: The Belt and Rd Initiative (BRI) is at the heart of
Chinese strategy of exploiting economics vis-à-vis military
as a tool for expanding its global infl uence. BRI projects have
already created debt-laden economics in IOR in the garb of
infrastructure developments.
Indo US Entente & Resurgence of Quad: A reaction to
growing Chinese infl uence has been the US-India entente.
China has identifi ed the USA as its principal adversary and
views India through the same lens. The apparent re-emergence
of Quad between India, USA, Japan, and Australia appears to
be an early reaction to expanding Chinese maritime footprint.
Sino-Russian Cooperation: The Sino-Russian
Cooperation has a growing semblance of an alliance. India
with its increasing cooperation with the USA is apparently
drawing away from Russia, which could impact security
dynamics in the region.
Turbulence in West Asia: West Asia continues to simmer.
While US and Russia compete militarily, it is China which
is emerging as the biggest benefactor in West Asia by virtue
its increasing inroads.
Militarisation of South China Sea (SCS): China has
consolidated its control over SCS initially by island building
and now militarisation of Spratly Islands. There is a growing
concern that the Indian Ocean is the next destination of
Chinese militarisation.
India-China Detente: India and China despite being the
two fastest growing economies have been engaged in a tit
for tat détente. India has mostly been at the receiving end
of Chinese unilateralism and belligerence. The boundary
disputes, CPEC, marginalization in the neighbourhood,
Tibet, Dalai Lama amongst others are issues which keep
pulling India and China apart. The apparent lack of strategic
trust is holding the two nations from a mutually benefi cial
cooperative rise.
The Aim of the Project
Broad Aim: Analyse the implications of Chinese Strategic
Behaviour.
Knowledge Gap: Establish a connection between
economic, political and military activities of China to
ascertain its strategic behaviour.
Statement of the Problem
China claims itself to be non-interventionist and envisions
develop a “Community of Common Destiny’’ globally.
However, on ground actions varying from economic activities
amounting to debt diplomacy to the outright militarisation
of SCS raises questions about its actual intentions. Will this
amalgam of economic and military factors lead China towards
a peaceful rise or will it read to increase in its belligerent
behaviour needs.
Hypothesis
Will China’s Strategic behaviour become even more
belligerent in the coming years?
Proposed Methodology of Research
The coronation of Xi for an indefi nite period, alienation of
Maldives, growing US-India coop, possible revising the Quad
etc. are several factors which are reshaping the situation. Will
these developments propel China towards a more belligerent
behaviour?
Data Collection
The literature being reviewed include: books, newspaper
articles, think tank reports, white papers etc. The list is only
preliminary and will be developed further.
Books:
1. China’s Evolving Strategy by Joe Mc Reynolds
2. 100 Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury
3. China Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small
4. China in IOR by R Sidda Goud and Manisha
Mookherjee
5. US-China-India Strategic Triangle in IOR by Sithara
Fernando
6. (vi) China’s Expanding Military Maritime Footprint in
IOR by Gopal Suri
Western, Chinese & Indian Think Tanks: CASS,
CSIS, IISS, Jamestown Foundation, Brookings Institution,
STRATFOR, Rand, MERICS, Lowy Institute, SIPRI, Janes,
IDSA, USI, CLAWS, ORF, VIF, CENJOWS, ICS etc.
Chinese White Papers, Science of Mil Strategy (excerpts
available online).
Chinese and Indian Newspapers: Global Times, Xinhua,
SCMP, Hindu, Times of India, Indian Express, Hindustan
Times, Asian Age, Pioneer etc.
Magazines: Diplomat, Foreign Aff airs, Economists, and
all Indian publications.
36 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 1 • January 2019, Noida