https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/#:~:text=The%20most%20basic%20measure%20of,an%20average%201.8%20percent%20growth.)
Despite Biden’s claim that inflation stood at nine percent when he started office (not true, it was 1.4 percent),7 research also suggested high inflation numbers not only could not only be explained away quite easily but quickly subsided: “the best measure is the BEA’s GDP, which shows all prices rising an average of 2.1 percent per year under Trump compared to an average rate of 5.4 percent under Biden—though slowing under Biden to a 2.1 percent rate in 2023.” (Source: Robert J. Shapiro. “Data Don’t Lie: Biden’s Economic Record is Much Better than Trump’s,” The Washington Monthly, 26 January 2024. Retrieved from: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/01/26/data-dont-lie-bidens-economic-record-is-much-better-than-trumps/#:~:text=The%20most%20basic%20measure%20of,an%20average%201.8%20percent%20growth.)
There is also more research that demonstrates Biden did tame inflation during his tenure.
(Source: Y Charts. “US Inflation Rate (I:USIR) - 2.75% for Nov 2024.” Retrieved from: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate#:~:text=US%20Inflation%20Rate%20is%20at,in%20price%20over%20a%20year.)
The concern here is that, though the inflation appears to be accelerating, ticking up a bit more than .25 percent since October 2024, the real concern is how quickly it will return to a much high number because of Trump’s proposed tax cuts and high tariffs.
According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, speaking at a Wall Street Journal CEO Council event on December 10th, “President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to levy broad import tariffs could derail progress in quelling inflation and raise costs for households and businesses. Yellen also said she was concerned about U.S. fiscal sustainability and said Congress needed to look for ways to pay for any extensions of Trump's 2017 individual and small-business tax cuts, which are due to expire in 2025.” Moreover, Yellen said that “extension of all expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would add $5 trillion to U.S. deficits over 10 years, and that Congress needed to find offsets to avoid an ‘explosion’ of debt.”12 (Source: Lawder, David. “Yellen says Trump's tariffs could derail US inflation progress, raise costs.” Reuters, 10 December 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/yellen-says-trumps-tariffs-could-derail-us-inflation-progress-raise-costs-2024-12-10/)
Readers will remember that 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists said “Trump's economic plans would reignite inflation, in part because of his pledge to impose stiffer tariffs on Chinese imports, which they say will hike prices on many goods bought by U.S. consumers.”13 (Source: Reid, Tim. “13 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation, Reuters, 26 June 2024. Retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/16-nobel-prize-winning-economists-say-trump-policies-will-fuel-inflation-2024-06-25/ And yet, the public chose to ignore those numbers and still rely on Trump’s anecdotal claims that Americans were suffering horribly under the Biden Administration – such as Trump’s constant but unsubstantiated refrain that an elderly woman had to return one of three apples at the grocery store because inflation had so significantly cut in her disposal income.
Moreover, they bought his argument that if voters returned him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.” Hopeful thinking, as again there is no evidence to suggest that will happen. The Peterson Institute for International Economics predicted, for example, that “Trump’s policies — the deportations, import taxes and efforts to erode the Fed’s independence — would drive consumer prices sharply higher two years into his second term.” Peterson’s analysis concluded that inflation, which would otherwise register 1.9% in 2026, would instead jump to between 6% and 9.3% if Trump’s economic proposals were adopted.” (Source: Paul Wiseman and Christopher Rugaber. “Trump’s economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say,” Associated Press, 15 October 2024. Retrieved from: https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed
11 Pelton, Tom. “Why Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policies will not reduce U.S. oil and gasoline prices,” Oil & Gas Watch, 14 November 2024. Retrieved from: https://news.oilandgaswatch.org/post/why-trumps-drill-baby-drill-policies-will-not-reduce-u-s-oil-and-gasoline-prices
Putting Trump’s manufacturing claims into context, it needs to be noted that “the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen sharply since