Morne Botha, Pecanwood GC
evidenced by the original lack of consensus on the wearing
of masks. Combined with the probable date for the
production of a freely available vaccine being at least 18
months away, this is a highly toxic cocktail of factors.
With the fear of contracting the virus, and it should be
remembered that there are no vaccines for viruses like
Ebola, and with people’s experiences of the lockdowns,
the combination may well change attitudes towards many
everyday activities, including travel.
Will this be the end tourism….certainly not.
However, tourism is a ‘people business’ and the pandemic
may have set in motion a series of events, which may see a
seismic shift in how travel is managed and marketed in the
future.
The present danger is that the longer the travel lockdown
continues, the greater the number of airlines and SME’s in
the travel sector that will not survive.
Those that do may have to look for partnerships, with
businesses of a similar size and complementary products
and services, or rationalise their operations.
The broader danger is that corporates, sitting on
significant cash reserves, could have a field day as they
snap up struggling and undervalued companies, even to
taking hitherto unaffordable stakes in large enterprises, the
share values for which have plummeted since January.
A Black Friday of global proportions could cannibalise the
SME layers in many business sectors and set these areas
back for decades.
It is hoped that any continued anxiety around
international travel, may well see an upsurge in activity
in local tourism, with the affluent overseas travellers
preferring to spend their time ‘at home’.
This region is pinning its hopes to some extent on this
scenario, especially as the hotels and B&B’s will all be
open in time for the summer holidays and Christmas. This
holiday window is extremely important for many areas in
South Africa such as the Sunshine Coast and our partners
in this region – Olivewood, Royal Port Alfred and the Royal
Saint Andrews Hotel.
However, any increased spend from this profile of traveller,
may fall short in plugging the overall loss of spend. This
will be because the average wage earner’s disposable
income will have shrunk from the combined effects
of a previously malfunctioning economy, and the new
pressures created around decisions made to combat the
pandemic.
There will be no silver bullets in all of this and a
rationalisation of the overall number of golf clubs, airlines
and travel business will probably be inevitable.
This could prove to be a positive outcome and where
clubs combine their resources, similar to the merger
between the Kensington and Royal Johannesburg golf
clubs some years ago (although this was motivated by
other factors), the result could be the formation of
a stronger single unit, as opposed to two marginal or
underperforming clubs.
As will be the case at many golf clubs, such as Saint
Francis Links and Pearl Valley, Pecanwood’s board and
management team has been be wearing out their
calculators, modelling all the potential business options
that could come into play, as we move forward.
This is prudent, because just as the virus is particularly
dangerous to those individuals with underlying health
issues, its effects will seek out operationally weak or
unprepared businesses.
One can surmise that the ‘survivors’ in golf and the golf
Volume 5 • Issue 52
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