Think About This
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Which brings us back to politics . There are two roads to more Government spending : Republican capitulation or the fabled ‘ Blue Wave ’.
Trump ’ s Twitter tirade is sounding increasingly desperate . He sees the same polling we do , with a near double digit lead for Biden . The collapse in support following both the first debate and his COVID diagnosis is clear . With the large number of early ballots cast this year and the very small number of undecided voters , his strategists will be advising that only a seismic shift can save the race . Getting a stimulus deal before the election is likely the only policy that has the power to change the narrative that he is not taking COVID seriously .
GENERAL ELECTION : TRUMP VS . BIDEN ( RCP POLL AVERAGE )
51.2 42.3
Biden ( D ) + 8 . 9 Trump ( R )
52
50
48
Biden 49.3
46
44
42
40 Trump 40.7
12 10 8 6 4
Biden + 8.6
October 2020 April July
October
Sources : Real Clear Politics , Deltec
Trump is encouraging Republican Senators to capitulate to save the election . We don ’ t think the Trump administration ’ s coercion is going to work . We think Mitch McConnell and Republican Senators will stand firm . Democrat demands on transfers to States and the scale of the climb down on fiscal prudence are too hard to swallow . Besides there is a growing smell of putrescence around Trump that elicits distance and self-preservation behaviours among Republicans .
Trump offered $ 1.8 trillion to the Democrats but it pays for them to run down the clock , citing differences on how and where the money is spent . The Democrat ’ s chance of a clean sweep ( winning the Presidency , holding the House and taking the Senate ) is rising , currently standing at > 60 % according to the betting market . They will not want to give away any advantage by accepting anything less than full capitulation to their demands , and if so only at the very last minute .
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