U . S . President Joe Biden , happy to pick up the tab , seems confident that funding is on its way . The U . S . Congress isn ’ t so sure . The deal is supposedly to curb China in the Indo-Pacific , yet Biden assured Xi Jinping that the countries involved are not aiming to “ surround China .”

The U . K ., meanwhile , is MIA .

AUKUS was hailed as a new era of defense cooperation at its inception . It would be the alliance that finally stood up to China in this fragile region of the world . Defense spending , plus climate action . Two years later , the deal is on the ropes . In fact , it may not happen at all .

Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have met nine times since May 2022 to discuss the deal . Australia ’ s ambassador to the U . S . has publicly expressed frustration over the deal ’ s slow progress . So has its former prime minister .

In order to go ahead , the U . S . must reform its export controls . Congress has only just elected a new speaker . Two other wars are sucking the air out of the AUKUS debate , even though there is general bipartisan agreement on the need to curb China in the region .

Congress will also need to authorize the sale of at least three Virginia-class

submarines to Australia in the 2030s . Some Republicans , such as Sen . Roger Wicker of Mississippi , have raised concerns that will come at the cost of the U . S .’ s own needs .

Two other problems stand in the way . A Congressional Budget Office report called the deal “ difficult and expensive .” U . S . shipyards are struggling to meet the demand , and are well behind schedule . The rate of building nuclear submarines is currently at 1.5 SSN per year . It needs to be at 1.9-2.6 for the deal to be pulled off .

There are also concerns in Congress about the capabilities and preparedness of weaker militaries in the region , such as Australia and New Zealand , which also have a security pact with the U . S . This has been heightened by Ukraine ’ s failed counter-offensive against Russia this summer despite billions in U . S . military aid .

On the other side of the Pacific , Australia has delayed inspections and fleet reviews and is not building any of its own new sub vessels . Australian-built nuclear-powered submarines are only due to enter into service in the 2040s ( when this author will be in his 50s ). The labor prime minister also promised thousands of good paying union jobs ; his party expects that to come first , not expensive security deals .

Then , of course , there is the U . K . Relations between London and D . C . have been strained since the Trump years . Nobody thinks they are improving . Australia ’ s Labor Party is openly musing about ditching the British monarchy in

favor of a republic .

To make matters worse , a report from the U . K .’ s Defense Committee called its presence in the Indo-Pacific “ limited .” The strategy for the region , it said , was “ unclear ,” with its own submarines not set to return for another two years . The U . K . will be unable to play a major role in the region without a “ major commitment ” of new defense spending , equipment and personnel or “ potentially rebalancing existing resources ,” according to the document . Little movement has been noted since its publication .

If the arrangement makes no meaningful impact on altering the regional military balance of power , then AUKUS ’ s allies and many other countries in the region will lose faith . If not these three , who will hold China in check here , they rightfully ask . And if nobody , China would be too happy to pour in billions of dollars in exchange for supporting the communist regime over Taiwan .

There is another element to the Indo-Pacific region discussed in the quiet rooms of government buildings : India . AUKUS countries see India as a useful ally in the region and as a counterweight to the rise of China as a superpower .

The issue here is that India still enjoys

close ties with China and Russia . Western countries have attempted to woo New Delhi since the start of Russia ’ s invasion of Ukraine , though so far to little avail . The other fear is that India ’ s rise will be hard to contain and that this could lead to tensions along the border with Pakistan ( often described as a “ friendly enemy ” to the U . S .).

A new Australian delegation will travel to D . C . in November for talks . It will discuss efforts to advance cooperation and development in the fields of artificial intelligence , quantum , cyber , electronic warfare , and information sharing . Few are expecting any kind of a breakthrough . But even fewer expect it to fall apart . At least yet .

Fortunately , the issue is simple : all three nations should step up and take this deal more seriously . It will be their fault alone if it falters .

Dr . James C . Pearce previously worked at the University of Liverpool and the College of the Marshall Islands , and lived in Russia for almost a decade . He is the author of “ The Use of History in Putin ’ s Russia ”, and has written on Russian memory politics , historical narratives , education policy and historical anniversaries . Send feedback to jcpearce . 91 @ gmail . com .

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