CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VIII (1) ContemporaryEurasia81 | Page 83

YULONG DAI The fourth result should be impossible because Singapore only effectively controls Pedra Branca. According to all the evidence provided by both parties later in the proceeding of the dispute, the rank of probabilities from higher to lower should be Result 3> Result 1> Result 2> Result 4=0. In other words, Singapore was more likely to win Pedra Branca at the beginning of this case. Results Islets Pedra Branca Middle Rocks South Ledge Singapore/Malaysia 1, -1 1, -1 1, -1 Singapore/Malaysia -1, 1 -1, 1 -1, 1 Singapore/Malaysia 1, -1 -1, 1 N/A Singapore/Malaysia -1, 1 1, -1 N/A For Singapore, Middle Rocks, as well as South Ledge, are not as important as Pedra Branca because the latter is more valuable, though it would be more favorable that Singapore acquires all these three islets. These maritime features are located at the center line of the north navigation channel of the Singapore Strait. It is because Pedra Branca is geographically larger and more exploitable than Middle Rocks that it was chosen as the ideal location for the Horsburgh Lighthouse. However, it is quite obvious that Singapore attempted to call for more interests by putting the dispute of Middle Rocks and South Ledge forward. If this proposal was accepted Malaysia, Singapore then would have the right to claim more disputed islets as well as the territorial waters around them, rather than just claim Pedra Branca while acquiescing to Malaysia’s sovereignty over Middle Rocks. If the Court did not recognize Malaysia’s indirect evidence regarding Johor’s original title to the islets in this region, it would then be possible for Singapore to be awarded all the disputed islets after the evaluation of the vague evidence that it investigated and managed shipwrecks in the area of their territorial waters. 17 On the other hand, the result of Middle Rocks being awarded to Malaysia might be more acceptable for it, compared to Singapore’s winning all the islets. This result means minimizing loss of interests, from Malaysia’s point of view. Singapore might have predicted this more probable result ahead of the arbitration, considering that it should have been well acquainted with the evidence relating to these islets. Therefore it is tactful that Singapore proactively put the dispute of Middle Rocks and South Ledge forward to expand the potential interests it could claim. If Singapore failed to win the sovereignty over these extra two islets, the result should be 17 About Singapore’s records of investigation and management on shipwrecks, see Memorial of Singapore, 118-122. 83