CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VIII (1) ContemporaryEurasia81 | Page 83

YULONG DAI
The fourth result should be impossible because Singapore only
effectively controls Pedra Branca. According to all the evidence provided by
both parties later in the proceeding of the dispute, the rank of probabilities
from higher to lower should be Result 3> Result 1> Result 2> Result 4=0. In
other words, Singapore was more likely to win Pedra Branca at the
beginning of this case.
Results
Islets
Pedra Branca Middle Rocks South Ledge
Singapore/Malaysia 1, -1 1, -1 1, -1
Singapore/Malaysia -1, 1 -1, 1 -1, 1
Singapore/Malaysia 1, -1 -1, 1 N/A
Singapore/Malaysia -1, 1 1, -1 N/A
For Singapore, Middle Rocks, as well as South Ledge, are not as
important as Pedra Branca because the latter is more valuable, though it
would be more favorable that Singapore acquires all these three islets. These
maritime features are located at the center line of the north navigation
channel of the Singapore Strait. It is because Pedra Branca is geographically
larger and more exploitable than Middle Rocks that it was chosen as the
ideal location for the Horsburgh Lighthouse. However, it is quite obvious
that Singapore attempted to call for more interests by putting the dispute of
Middle Rocks and South Ledge forward. If this proposal was accepted
Malaysia, Singapore then would have the right to claim more disputed islets
as well as the territorial waters around them, rather than just claim Pedra
Branca while acquiescing to Malaysia’s sovereignty over Middle Rocks. If
the Court did not recognize Malaysia’s indirect evidence regarding Johor’s
original title to the islets in this region, it would then be possible for
Singapore to be awarded all the disputed islets after the evaluation of the
vague evidence that it investigated and managed shipwrecks in the area of
their territorial waters. 17
On the other hand, the result of Middle Rocks being awarded to
Malaysia might be more acceptable for it, compared to Singapore’s winning
all the islets. This result means minimizing loss of interests, from Malaysia’s
point of view. Singapore might have predicted this more probable result
ahead of the arbitration, considering that it should have been well acquainted
with the evidence relating to these islets. Therefore it is tactful that
Singapore proactively put the dispute of Middle Rocks and South Ledge
forward to expand the potential interests it could claim. If Singapore failed to
win the sovereignty over these extra two islets, the result should be
17
About Singapore’s records of investigation and management on shipwrecks, see Memorial
of Singapore, 118-122.
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