CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VIII (1) ContemporaryEurasia81 | Page 47

MAXIMILIAN OHLE, RICHARD J. COOK, ZHAOYING HAN & RYSBEK MAMAZHANOV
inter-state cooperation. 7 Nevertheless, as Chinese imperial power declined,
many outer-rim tributaries were left unchecked and fell under the Kremlin-
centric orders. Recognising the historical trends and developing
contemporary dynamics, Central Asia constitutes a suitable issue-specific
domain in which to perform an analysis, as several small states appear to be
caught in the middle of this geopolitical contest. As Kyrgyzstan occupies a
strategic position in the Eurasian heartland, located on the border of China
and being a passageway or transit actor between the two geopolitical
contenders, it has been selected for this case study, namely for security and
economic considerations. This paper will pose the following questions: is
China able to expand its hierarchical relations by negotiating a specific type
of social contract with Kyrgyzstan? What are the potential benefits provided
by China and do they exceed those offered by Russia? Finally, why and to
what extent is Kyrgyzstan, from a subordinate's perspective, incurring
regional hedging, recognising the geopolitical rivalry and the presumable
“intervention” of China into Russia's conventional sphere of influence and
attempting to incorporate Kyrgyzstan into its hierarchy by expanding its
economic and security commitments? This investigation also aims to
contribute to works that are attempting to determine how China’s
hierarchical order is being shaped and scrutinizes a developing epistemic
community centred on hierarchical research.
As for the centripetal bargaining interaction of the Central Asian
republics, in this case, Kyrgyzstan, vis-à-vis the dominant cores in Moscow
and Beijing, David A. Lake’s conception of social contracting dynamics is
applied. It specifically illustrates how subordinates confer a certain degree of
authority upon the dominant enshrined in a social contract that has to be
constantly renegotiated. 8 Kyrgyzstan is currently weighing whether to
maintain its traditionally firm links with Russia or aligning itself with China,
whilst inducing regional power hedging by seeking the best set of net
benefits in the security and economic domains. In this context, Bishkek’s
engagement with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) (security) as well as the
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the BRI (economics) is critically
reflected. Taking into account its institutional commitments, specific social
contracting dynamics can be identified that legitimise the respective
dominant’s legitimacy to generate political order.
“Anarchy” and “Hierarchy” as sui generis Hegemonic Order
Categories and Kyrgyzstan’s Alignment Predicament
The conceptual dichotomy between anarchy and hierarchy has long
7
Yongjin Zhang and Barry Buzan, “The Tributary System as International Society in Theory
and Practice”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 5, (2012): 8-9.
8
Lake, Hierarchy in International Relations, 44.
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