CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VIII (1) ContemporaryEurasia81 | Page 45

MAXIMILIAN OHLE, RICHARD J. COOK, ZHAOYING HAN & RYSBEK MAMAZHANOV
SMALL STATES BETWEEN GREAT POWERS
MAXIMILIAN OHLE, RICHARD J. COOK,
ZHAOYING HAN & RYSBEK MAMAZHANOV
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE: WHAT IS BISHKEK’S
HEDGING STRATAGEM?
Abstract: The contemporary topos of Sino-Russo relations is one of
cooperation and entente. The alternative view is that Russia and China
are now locked in a long-term structural peer rivalry over the Eurasian
rim-lands, both offering various net benefits to subordinate states in the
area in order to induce them into their respective orders. Traditionally a
Kremlin-centric order’s stomping ground, this theatre is undergoing a
major systemic change as China’s Belt and Road Initiative penetrates
deeper into the region. Simultaneously, Russia is concerned with
maintaining its great power status. It has been essentially
re-
establishing a sequel political and economic order to fill the void left by
the Soviet Union – with the inception of the Commonwealth of
Independent States and its related sub-institutions such as the Eurasian
Economic Union (economics), as well as the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation (security). This situation has left Kyrgyzstan caught in the
middle, yet also in a position to seek the best set of net benefits. Taking
into consideration David A. Lake’s hierarchy formula, this paper will
focus on Bishkek’s hedging stratagem – searching for the best range of
net benefits from both prevalent powers in the region – with regards to
their interests and preferences. Additionally, the paper will identify an
overlapping dual order arrangement for the region as Russia retains a
dominant security position and China provides various economic
development projects (BRI), needed by states such as Kyrgyzstan.
Keywords: Kyrgyzstan, Russia, China, Regional Power Hedging,
Hierarchy
Introduction
Following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the emergence of
the Russian Federation, Russia has sought to retain what it sees as its
periphery or the ‘Russia-plus zone’ comprised of various subordinates of the
Kremlin-centric Eurasian order. 1 The relationships conform to a hierarchical
1
Dmitri Trenin, The End of Eurasia: Russia on the border between Geopolitics and
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