CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VI (1) Contemporary-Eurasia-VI-1-engl | страница 9

CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VI (1)
ALEXANDER KRYLOV
THE KARABAKH PROBLEM IN THE MID-2010’s
Abstract
In this article a situation on the territory of Karabakh conflict and
the positions of the conflicting parties are analyzed. These are
based on a “package approach” (Armenia) and “step by step
approach” (Azerbaijan). These approaches of the sides are at a
complete contradiction and are the main reason for the
ineffectiveness of the negotiations under the OSCE Minsk Group,
thus increasing the likelihood of a transition to a military-force
scenario to solve the problem. Russia's policy is seeking to prevent
a new war in Karabakh by maintaining a comparable military-
political balance of power. In this situation, the main task of the
OSCE Minsk Group and Russian diplomacy is a creation of
effective mechanisms to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
International ceasefire monitoring will create conditions for the
activation of the negotiation process with the aim of achieving a
comprehensive settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In the
alternative the Karabakh problem will continue to be a source of
international tension.
Keywords:
The Karabakh problem, Azerbaijan, Armenia, NKR, Russian policy,
the OSCE Minsk Group, the CSTO, military-political balance
Introduction
The unresolved Karabakh problem continues to be a major obstacle
to developing and modernizing the South Caucasus. Following the
epic fail in the 1992-1994 war, Azerbaijani authorities realized that
the Karabakh problem could not be solved by military means.
Accordingly, during the first post-war years, the main focus was on
diplomacy: Baku leadership was indeed set to use US and EU’s
interest in energy supplies from Azerbaijan to regain Nagorno-
Karabakh. Baku treated energy cooperation treaties with EU within
the only context: “oil in exchange for Karabakh”. They even tried to
use Moscow’s interest in bringing Azerbaijan to the Collective
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