CONTEMPORARY EURASIA VOLUME VI (1) Contemporary-Eurasia-VI-1-engl | Seite 22

ARMEN MANVELYAN
But in recent years, namely, since 2014, the plunge in oil prices
changed the security environment in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan's
role in the region declined, shaking the foundations of the established
security system in the region and giving rise to internal economic,
political and social problems. The lifting of economic sanctions on
Iran allowed this regional power to intensify its participation in
regional politics and to attempt to strengthen its influence and position
in the region, especially in the sphere of energy projects 6 .
Currently, Iran and Russia are trying to revive the so-called North-
South transport corridor program that has an important “energy
corridor” component. The aim of this project is to create a high-
voltage power line that would tie the electricity systems of Iran and
Russia through the South Caucasus - Armenia and Georgia. This will
likely increase Russian-Iranian influence in the Sou th Caucasian
energy projects and give this alliance a chance to change the balance
of power in the region even further 7 .
Consequently, the region is now facing new realities with new
problems, risks, and threats to the fragile regional security (and energy
security in particular). These realities could potentially turn the so-
called frozen conflicts into hot ones; indeed, one of the reasons of the
recent war in Karabakh (April 2016) was the change referred to in the
regional balance of power – with the low oil prices playing a
significant triggering role.
Azerbaijan which has lost its energy power due to the decline in oil
prices on the global energy markets faces huge economic and
therefore internal political issues 8 . This situation has an impact on the
regional energetic system too. Azerbaijan's role and impact as an oil
export country are weakening in both the international and markets.
Now the so-called East-West energy corridor from Azerbaijan to
6
Ianchovichina E., Sh. Devarajan, C. Lakatos, Lifting Economic Sanctions on
Iran:
Global
Effects
and
Strategic
Responses,
2016,
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/298681467999709496/pdf/WPS7549.pdf
7
Melikyan J. “Foreign Policy of Georgia”, Globus Analitical Bulletin, No. 4,
2016, (in Armenian) http://www.noravank.am/upload/pdf/Globus_4_2016.pdf
8
De Waal T., Azerbaijan at Twenty-Five: A New Era of Change and Turbulence,
Carnegie Europe, 2016, http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/09/23/ azerbaijan-at-
twenty-five-new-era-of-change-and-turbulence-pub-64671
22