average guess of 88.9 million acres. Milo acreage was
pegged at 7.9 million acres, up 800,000 from last year
but lower than the average trade guess of 8.1 million
acres. This number could increase with time as acreage shift from corn to milo on areas that could not get
corn in the ground in time and as more of the Kansas
wheat crop becomes beyond help and those acres are
plowed up and replanted to milo. We’ll see what the
June planting intentions brings as far as changes in
planted acreage. Weather is the piece of this that could
change all thoughts and ideas if planting delays in
corn force more acres to beans. We will likely see multiple events of weather concerns through the spring
providing volatility to flat price and opportunities to
add sales on the books at more advantageous levels.
The Quarterly Stocks component in the March 31
report was also negative with March 1 stocks at 7.745
bbu of total corn inventories, which was well over average trade expectations for a 7.6 bbu type of number.
On-Farm stocks fell just short of a record high set in
1988, accounting for 56 percent of total inventory. The
farmer clearly remains the “big long” in the market.
Total stocks for this time of year were the highest
since 1987. March 31 stocks for milo on the other
hand proved again how tight that market really is — at
119 mbu, which is down 33 percent from last year. Of
the 119 mbu, 110 mbu are in off farm storage.
Corn carryout per this last report was set at 1.777
bbu versus the November report, when it was pegged
at 2.080 bbu. Because of production changes, but
more so demand changes, the carryout has been
reduced by 303 mbu since after harvest.
A record-size South American bean crop (being
harvested) and a strengthening dol