Connection Spring 2015 - Page 11

average guess of 88.9 million acres. Milo acreage was pegged at 7.9 million acres, up 800,000 from last year but lower than the average trade guess of 8.1 million acres. This number could increase with time as acreage shift from corn to milo on areas that could not get corn in the ground in time and as more of the Kansas wheat crop becomes beyond help and those acres are plowed up and replanted to milo. We’ll see what the June planting intentions brings as far as changes in planted acreage. Weather is the piece of this that could change all thoughts and ideas if planting delays in corn force more acres to beans. We will likely see multiple events of weather concerns through the spring providing volatility to flat price and opportunities to add sales on the books at more advantageous levels. The Quarterly Stocks component in the March 31 report was also negative with March 1 stocks at 7.745 bbu of total corn inventories, which was well over average trade expectations for a 7.6 bbu type of number. On-Farm stocks fell just short of a record high set in 1988, accounting for 56 percent of total inventory. The farmer clearly remains the “big long” in the market. Total stocks for this time of year were the highest since 1987. March 31 stocks for milo on the other hand proved again how tight that market really is — at 119 mbu, which is down 33 percent from last year. Of the 119 mbu, 110 mbu are in off farm storage. Corn carryout per this last report was set at 1.777 bbu versus the November report, when it was pegged at 2.080 bbu. Because of production changes, but more so demand changes, the carryout has been reduced by 303 mbu since after harvest. A record-size South American bean crop (being harvested) and a strengthening dol