coming in .3 of a bushel below
the average trade guess. Har-
vested area increased 740,000
acres to 89.5 mln (versus av-
erage trade guess of 89.1) with
production holding steady at
4.431 bbu (average trade guess
of 4.439). Stocks, however, fell
45 mbu due to the impact of the
September stocks report (down
44 mbu).
Like corn, let’s note NASS has
harvested 49 percent of its bean
plots versus 53 percent at this
time last year and that based
on historical trends in past
years, you tend to see further
reductions in bean yields in the
November report after a reduc-
tion is seen from the Sept to the
Oct report. NASS noted lower
pod weights than Sept report,
while pod counts were actually
slightly higher than Sept.
All cotton production was
lowered 640K bales or down 3
percent from the Sept report
but is still well over last year’s
final crop. Yields dropped 19
pounds versus the Sept report
yet is still 22 pounds over last
year’s final. Specific to Tex-
as, USDA did lower yields to
745 pounds, down 13 pounds
from last month, though total
production is still 900,000 bales
over last year at 9 million bales
accounting for 44 per cent of
the total U.S. upland cotton
production (Texas Pima pro-
duction at 26,000 bales account-
ing for 3.7 percent of the US
production)
Should these USDA numbers
stick, we’ll have produced the
second highest yield on record.
In terms of cotton by specific
class, upland cotton is forecast-
ed to be 20.4 million bales up
4.7 million from last year while
Pima stayed unchanged from
last month at 727,000 bales.
Domestic mill use was steady,
exports though were reduced
400,000 bales due to reduced
U.S. production and less com-
petitive U.S. prices versus global
competitors. In the end, ending
stocks were lowered and the
stock-to-use ratio at 32.5 per-
cent is in line with last month
and the highest level we’ve seen
since the ’08-’09 crop year.
Global S&D forecasts for
2017/18 had a small increase in
production, consumption, and
trade versus a year ago. Pro-
duction is raised about 100,000
bales as larger expected crops in
Argentina, Brazil, and Greece
more than offset the drop in
U.S. production. Vietnam is
the primary driver behind
a 250,000-bale increase in
projected world consumption,
while a 440,000-bale increase in
projected 2017/18 world cotton
trade reflects increases in India,
Australia, and Brazil that more
than offset lower expected U.S.
exports.
What now? Things to think
about winding down this crop
going into the ’18-’19 crop year:
For a large part of the entire
Southern Coastal areas of Texas,
this past year has certainly had
its challenges between prices
and natural disasters. The hur-
ricane caused serious damage to
significant amounts of row crop
and cotton acreage not harvest-
ed prior to the hurricane. Plenty
of restoration and rebuilding
continues, but the resilience
and the resolve of those of you
in these areas is amazing.
For corn and milo produc-
tion, many of you had started
marketing a portion of your
new crop when September and
December futures hit prices at
or above the $3.90 futures level.
Looking back at both futures
months last year at this time,
we were trading between $3.90
and $3.95 while hitting a high
in mid-July of last year of just