Confero Spring 2015: Issue 10 | Page 27

Endowment and Foundation Spending Guidelines Two other factors that can make the decision particularly challenging are the changing levels of both revenue and liability streams. Managing changing liabilities and revenue Liabilities Another important consideration in selecting a spending policy is the growth rate to use for liabilities. The liability stream depends on the mission of the institution and may or may not be linked to a traditional growth rate, such as the change in the CPI. Assessing liability growth is important, because increases in liabilities work like asset returns in reverse (or to put it another way, adverse investment returns are similar to adverse cost increases). Like a negative spell in the markets, a surge in liabilities can jeopardize the corpus of the portfolio. As a result, any correlation between liabilities and investment performance should be factored into the asset allocation decision.3 Revenues A final consideration when selecting a spending policy is the expected level and volatility of future revenues or contributions. This expected income is an asset similar to any other, and “returns” (i.e., future revenues) can deviate from expectations. In years when contributions fall short of expectations, spending commitments may require that additional funds be taken from the portfolio. If such shortfalls happen frequently enough, the long-term viability of the portfolio may be jeopardized. Therefore, the correlation between contributions and investment performance should be factored into the asset-allocation decision. When stocks are performing well, institutions may receive higher contributions than expected; when stocks perform poorly, the reverse may occur. If such a correlation exists, holding stocks in the portfolio may be riskier to the institution’s spending plans than if there were no relation between revenues and the market. Endowments and foundations typically can address this risk by making minor changes in their asset allocation to reflect the strength of the correlation.4 Best practices Flexibility is the one word that best describes a solid spending policy. Rigid spending rules cannot eliminate investment volatility; they simply push it into the future. Spending policies insensitive to returns are risky, inasmuch as they rely on the assumption that the portfolio will recover before the endowment level reaches a crisis point (at which time much more dramatic reductions in spending would be necessary). Hedging that assumption, at least in part, by accepting some reduction in current spending is an appropriate response to market volatility. If prudent, returns-based reductions in current spending are a reasonable, acceptable part of a spending policy, then prudent, returns-based increases in spending are also reasonable when investment returns are more favorable. If the portfolio is to include volatile investments that are expected to produce high average returns, then administrators must either accept continuous, relatively smaller changes in spending or else run the risk of having to make abrupt and significantly larger adjustments later. The more an institution can tolerate some shortterm fluctuations in spending, the more likely it is to achieve its longer-term goals. Conclusion In conclusion, our analysis illustrates that there is no optimal, “one size fits all” spending policy for endowments and foundations. Which policy should be implemented depends on what is most important to the institution. There is an inherent tradeoff between maintaining constant spending levels and achieving long-term asset growth to support future spending. The right spending policy should meet the needs of both current beneficiaries and future ones. Volatility is measured as the average absolute deviation of spending below the initial level of $2.5 million over the 45 time paths for each method. For more on this topic, see Donald G. Bennyhoff, 2005: Preserving a Portfolio’s Real Value: Is There an Optimal Strategy? Valley Forge, Pa.: Investment Counseling & Research, The Vanguard Group, 20 p. 4 For a technical treatment of this issue, see Robert C. Merton, 1993: Optimal Investment Strategies for University Endowment Funds. In Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, Charles Clotfelter and Michael Rothschild (ed.). Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press. 2 3 www.conferomag.com | 25