With limited federal funding go-
ing to the National Weather Service,
the approach of combining statisti-
cal modeling and machine learning
with dynamical modeling could be
a cost-effective solution, she says.
For example, one technique could
be using statistical modeling to
post-process the output of a dynami-
cal model.
In 2019, researchers at the Center
for Western Weather and Water Ex-
tremes published a paper in Geophys-
ical Research Letters titled “Improv-
ing Atmospheric River Forecasts With
Machine Learning.” They wanted to
explore how machine learning could
reduce error in numerical weather
forecasts regarding elements of at-
mospheric rivers. The study presents
a forecast post-processing method
that modifies forecasts by examining
historical forecast errors from the
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction’s Global Forecast System
and correcting for those errors.
The future looks bright for inte-
grating artificial intelligence and
machine learning into forecasting
models. But any progress will require
more research funding. Jones hopes
the various partnerships and pilots
show improvement for longer lead
times. In the meantime, she says,
adding more tools (statistical model-
ing and machine learning) to existing
models can be implemented sooner
and for less money in terms of super-
computer resources.
“Twenty years from now, when
maybe they have figured out how to
make the world’s biggest supercom-
puter the size of your iPhone, maybe
we’ll get there,” Jones says, “but we’re
not there yet.”
Russell Nichols is a freelance writer
who focuses on technology, culture and
mental health. His work has appeared
in The Wall Street Journal, The Boston
Globe, Governing magazine and Gov-
ernment Technology. On Twitter
@russellnichols.
STOEL RIVES WATER
RESOURCE EXPERIENCE
RUNS DEEP
THE WATER RESOURCES LEGAL EXPERTS
Water resources in California are increasingly complicated
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“There are countless situations where water resources are the
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a multidisciplinary approach is paramount.”
Stoel Rives has a deep bench of attorneys with the experience and
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Looking to the future, the firm’s goal is to continue providing
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concludes, “We are positioned to help ensure that our clients can
successfully manage changing circumstances, new regulations, and
any other obstacles regarding the use of this precious resource.”
stoel.com
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