Page 7
Figure 6 : False positive and negative rates of current and future screening tests .
Current screening tests are less accurate than many patients realise . The PSA is particularly inaccurate
Source : goetzpartners Research
A multi cancer early detection test could save lives and be cost effective
Multi-cancer early detection is the future cost saver An accurate multi-cancer early detection (“ MCED ”) test would reduce costs and result in a value-based price of $ 1,196 at a 100k quality-adjusted life-year willingness-to-pay threshold ( Tafazolli , et al ., 2022 ). Research has started trialling this in the UK from Grail LLC / Illumina Inc and a liquid biopsy circulating tumour DNA (“ CtDNA ”) method . This indicates how the incidence of cancers diagnosed at stages III / IV changes , with results expected in 2025E / 2026E compared to the background population . We expect this to be strong evidence for the adoption of MCED tests in wider screening programs and a catalyst for further investment in this space .
Current status of screening and early diagnosis
Current screening programmes are not necessarily evidence based
There are few national screening programs for different cancers across the world . Existing screening programs are often the result of political willpower rather than based on cost-effectiveness . Screening programmes across the USA and Europe commonly include mammography for breast cancer , faecal immunochemical test (“ FIT ”) for colorectal , and HPV testing for cervical cancer . These are population wide screening programs for asymptomatic individuals .
Please see analyst certifications , important disclosure information , and information regarding the status of analysts on pages 91-94 of this research report .