Community Bankers of Iowa Monthly Banker Update November 2013 | Page 15

Start the Clock Written By: Jim Reber, President/CEO of ICBA Securities Municipal Bonds Usually Fall Late in the Year Just what in the financial sector, you may have asked yourself, can a community banker rely on these days? Not inflation. It has remained well below the Fed’s comfort level, even with historic dollops of monetary stimulus. Not interest rates. They spiked in the second quarter of the year, even though the same Fed continued to insist that we’re miles away from an actual rate hike. Not loan demand, not deposit availability, not crop prices, not Congress. When buying tax-frees, banks almost exclusively buy the subcategory of bank-qualified (BQ) munis. BQs were hatched by a tax code change in 1986. A bank-qualified muni is one that is both under $10 million in total issue size and is for essential services such as schools, infrastructure or utilities. Portfolio buyers are incented to purchase BQs since banks can deduct most of the interest cost related to carrying the bonds. With very few exceptions, they cannot deduct any of the cost of general market munis. Also, since the vast majority are well-secured (usually by ad valorem property taxes), and because their supply is restricted, their risk profile is attractive to community banks. How about this prediction: municipal bonds, particularly the type community bank portfolio managers love, are probably going to fall in price late in 2013. Read on, if you are so inclined, to learn 1.) why this is likely, and 2.) how you can benefit. The bank-qualified sector It is a hallmark of a well-structured community bank bond portfolio to have a generous dose of tax-free munis. Usually banks that have onethird or more of their investments in the muni category have yields in the top quartile of their peers. This has been the case for at least several decades. Timing Tip: BQs usually are offered at bargain prices near the end of the year. Time pressures Here’s a tip for savvy portfolio managers: BQs usually are offered at bargain prices near the end of the year. The $10 million per annum limit makes it almost a necessity for some issuers to tap the market virtually every year. (If a potential bond issuance can qualify for BQ status, the issuer will almost always prefer that. The general lack of supply causes them to be coveted by )?????????????????????()M???????????????????????????????????????????????)????e????????????????????????????????????????)???????M??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? D??M?????e?????????????) D???????????????????????????Q?????????????????)?????????????????????????????????e????????)????????) ???????????$)????????????????????????????????????????????????????)????????????????????????????????????????????????)]???????????????????????????????????????????????)????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Q????????????????????????)??????????????????????????????????????????????)???????????????????????????????????????????????)?????)??????????????????????????????????????????????????)???????????????????????????????????????e????????????)????Q????????????????????????????? D????????)??????????????????????????????5?????????????????)?????????????????????????????????????)M????????????????????? D??????????????????%?e???????)?????????????d??????()9??????????((?()????????????????((??((0