Community Bankers of Iowa Monthly Banker Update January 2014 | Page 17

According to Michael Flahaven, president of Wenona State Bank in Wenona, “Community banks are being forced out of residential real estate loans. As this happens I expect small banks and their communities to suffer.” to a still solid 55.6 from November’s 58.8. The farmland and ranchland price index expanded to 69.4 from November’s 68.0. Colorado’s hiring index for December fell to a still healthy 58.7 from November’s 63.5. Each month, community bank presidents and CEOs in nonurban, agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of a 10-state area are surveyed regarding current economic conditions in their communities and their projected economic outlooks six months down the road. Bankers from Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming are included. The survey is supported by a grant from Security State Bank in Ansley, Neb. Illinois: The RMI for Illinois slipped to 54.1 from November’s 54.5. The RMI has remained at or above growth neutral for 15 straight months. The state’s farmland price index rose to a weak 47.3 from 46.0 in November. The state’s new-hiring index expanded to a frail 48.9 from 48.8 in November. This survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural, agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. It gives the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, president of CNB Community Bank of Greeley, Neb., created the monthly economic survey in 2005. Colorado: For the 15th straight month, Colorado’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) remained above 50.0 though it slipped Iowa: The December RMI for Iowa advanced to 55.3 from November’s 53.9. The farmland-price index for December sank to 52.3 from November’s 53.5. Iowa’s new-hiring index for December was unchanged from November’s 53.9. Kansas: The Kansas RMI for December dipped to 53.6 from November’s 53.8. The farmland-price index for December declined to 48.2 from November’s 48.6. The state’s new-hiring index slipped to 50.2 from 50.6 in November. Dale Bradley, chairman of the Citizens State Bank in Miltonvale, reported, “Good Fall crops in our area and Kansas overall.” (Rural Mainstreet continued on next page) Tables 1 and 2 summarize survey findings Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, Jan. 16. Table 1: Rural Mainstreet Economy Last Two Months and One Year Ago: (index > 50 indicates expansion) December 2012 November 2013 December 2013 Area economic index 60.6 54.3 56.1 Loan volume 62.1 56.9 66.7 Checking deposits 75.8 72.0 66.0 Certificates of deposit and savings instruments 49.2 44.8 37.2 Farmland prices 82.5 54.3 47.0 Farm equipment sales 67.0 47.3 44.3 Home sales 61.3 56.2 53.1 Hiring 53.5 54.4 56.9 Retail business 59.0 47.4 54.7 Confidence index (area economy six months out) 55.5 48.3 47.0 Table 2: The Rural Mainstreet Economy, December 2013 Percentage of bankers reporting Rising regulatory costs What is your estimate of the average per acre cash rent for non-irrigated cropland (not pasture) in your area for 2014? Rising loan defaults Other 55.9% 23.5% 14.7% 1.5% 4.4% ACA costs and uncertainties Overly aggressive EPA Downturn in Ethanol Industry Other 80.6% 10.4% 4.5% 1.5% 3.0% Over $800 What do you expect to be the biggest economic challenge for your area economy for 2014? Competition from Farm Credit Low agriculture commodity prices What do you expect to be the biggest economic challenge for community banks for 2014? Low loan demand $500 - $800 $300 - $499 $200 - $299 Below $200 1.7% 1.5% 27% 36.5% 33.3%