Commercial Investment Real Estate Spring 2022 | Page 9

MARKET TRENDS

COWORKING SPACE REBOUNDS AFTER COVID-19 CRATER
FED REPORTS FARMLAND VALUES HOLDING STRONG
RETAIL REIT BETS BIG ON OPEN-AIR SHOPPING CENTERS
HOTEL DEAL VOLUME REBOUNDS IN 2021 , EXCEEDS 2019 TOTAL
When the global pandemic devastated in-office work , with employee attendance dropping from 95 percent attendance in early 2020 to just 15 percent in April 2020 , coworking felt an equally significant shock . Overall inventory dropped 7 percent in North America by the end of 2021 , according to a recent report from Cushman & Wakefield . But the market fundamentals are beginning to show promise . More than half ( 53 percent ) of survey respondents said they will be looking to expand flexible office usage .
The report authors claim that flexible office spaces can operate as a bridge between full in-person work and working from home . The hub-and-spoke model , with a primary central office location complemented by satellite flex office spaces , may need to be rethought . Businesses may be moving away from a 70 / 30 split between main corporate offices and flexible space to ratios more like 60 / 40 or even 50 / 50 .
The Chicago and Kansas City Federal Reserve banks published surveys that show many in commercial real estate investment are bullish on farmland values . The Kansas City paper cited 154 banks reporting that farmland values increased by 20 percent in 2021 . The Chicago survey of 147 respondents found farmland values increased by 22 percent .
“ More than 50 percent of respondents expected farmland values to increase in 2022 , up from less than 45 percent in 2020 , and less than the average of 10 percent from 2014 to 2019 ,” according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve report . “ On top of expectations of higher farmland values for the next year , more than 50 percent of respondents also indicated that farmland values were currently overvalued , suggesting there may still be future risks of declines .”
While farmland gathers value , both surveys cited input costs , including raw materials like fertilizer , as a major concern for farm operators .
The performance of so-called “ necessity-based ” retail amid COVID-19 has put a lot of attention on grocery-anchored locations . On Feb . 14 , American Finance Trust completed a $ 547 million purchase of 44 shopping centers across the U . S ., with many properties in the Sun Belt . Along with the transaction , American Finance Trust announced a rebranding , unveiling its new name of The Necessity Retail REIT .
Michael Weil , CEO of The Necessity Retail REIT , said this acquisition is the first in a tranche of a $ 1.3 billion deal with CIM Real Estate Finance Trust to acquire 9.5 msf of retail space .
“ Today ’ s acquisition of 44 open-air shopping centers featuring necessity-retail tenants makes this the ideal time to complete our rebranding ,” says Weil . “ We are well on our way to being the leading REIT that is focused on assets leased to necessity-based retail tenants .”
While many economists have been wary about putting too much emphasis on year-overyear numbers when COVID-19 can warp the context of a snapshot in time , hospitality rebounded in 2021 . Total global transaction volume topped $ 66.8 billion last year , according to JLL research , a $ 25.4 billion improvement from 2020 . This figure also clears 2019 ’ s total of $ 56.4 billion . But hospitality faces its share of headwinds , with the JLL team outlining three major obstacles to growth :
Labor shortages . Millions of travel and leisure jobs were eliminated during the initial COVID-19 wave . Hospitality will need to improve compensation and time off .
Supply chain issues . Scarcity of materials , global factory delays , and transportation bottlenecks are complicating factors for hotel operators .
Room rates . Experts believe average room rates will increase in 2022 , but inflation could limit the benefits .
This page , left to right : Master1305 , Ghorne Photo , Benedek , Georgijevic
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COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE SPRING 2022