Commercial Investment Real Estate May/June 2017 - Page 35

intended to establish standards for autonomous
vehicle lawmaking to avoid drastically different
rules from state to state.
Industry Adaptation
Top Companies Engaged in Driverless Vehicles
Timeline of events from 2015 through 2030 projections
UK-Greenwich Autonomous Shuttle
Tokyo Olympics Demo
Singapore
Autonomous
Shuttle
Demos
The freight industry’s transition toward greater
automation is already underway in the age of
Uber
e-commerce, but it is certain to accelerate and
Uber/Volvo Autonomous Ford Autonomous Autonomous
Mobility
Fleet (Pittsburgh)
Mobility Service Mobility Service
expand with the widespread use of driverless vehi-
Services
(full deployment)
cles. Ultimately, logistics companies such as DHL
and FedEx foresee a future in which driverless
Volvo Drive Me
Ford Level 4 Driving
Nissan
vehicles can fully automate deliveries.
GM
Tesla
Jaguar Land
Super
Next-Gen Autonomous
The trucking industry is in the crosshairs of
Rover Autonomous
Consumer
Cruise
Autopilot Daimler
driverless technology, as executives and investors
Products
Autonomous
Drive
Daimler
Audi A8
envision fl eets of trucks absent the cost of drivers’
Truck
BMW iNext
Highly
Autonomous
Autonomous
VW Highly
Automated
salaries. Financial services company Morgan Stan-
Automated
ley offers the conservative estimate of $168 billion
in potential savings for the freight transportation
’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25
’30
industry when autonomous trucks are rolling on
Source: Press search; Company websites
U.S. highways.
Truckers may fight it, but their position is
On another front, transportation infrastructure has made
weakened by the chronic driver shortage, and an annual
turnover rate at U.S. trucking companies hovering around less progress. Some experts say that the solution to our
71 percent for large truckload fl eets, according to the crumbling highways, bridges, and railways lies in embrac-
American Trucking Association. The U.S. defi cit of truck ing new technologies — autonomous vehicles in particular
— rather than investing in roads built for vehicles that may
drivers could potentially climb to 175,000 by 2024.
Many European companies anticipate worsening driver soon become obsolete.
Also in conjunction with the decline in car ownership,
shortages. Several major corporations have set their sights
on autonomous trucks. In April 2016, six of the largest the parking garage is likely to be a relic of the automo-
manufacturers in Europe completed a test in which con- bile age. This is not only because fewer people would own
voys of semi-automated smart trucks arrived at a port in vehicles, but because self-driving cars don’t need to park
The Netherlands. One of the convoys traveled more than near the humans they transport. They could simply keep
going, moving from passenger to passenger, stopping only
1,200 miles.
In October 2016, self-driving truck company Otto to refuel or for repairs.
When autonomous vehicles do need to park, they can
completed a fully autonomous delivery in Colorado. The
San Francisco-based company, started by former Google do so with more precision. This would require less space
engineers and executives and acquired by Uber in August for occupant entry and exit, thus reducing the size of the
2016, still had a driver along for the ride. But the successful average parking spot.
In this version of the future, the concept of traveling for
point-to-point delivery was likely a glimpse into the truck-
work or leisure is likely to be entirely different than it is
ing industry’s future.
Driverless trucking proponents argue that autonomous today. This, in turn, could affect where individuals live,
technology will benefi t truckers by allowing them to focus what people buy, how the society designs and constructs
buildings, transportation infrastructure, and many other
on higher-function tasks. This remains to be seen.
components of daily life.
Paradigm Shift
Ultimately, human hearts and minds may be the great-
Uber CEO Travis Kalanick took some heat for a state- est obstacle to the adoption of driverless vehicles. Even the
ment he made at the 2014 Code Conference, noting that most avid technophile must admit that a fully autonomous
the cost of taking a self-driven Uber will be cheaper than vehicle requires a major leap of faith for people accustomed
owning a vehicle. “You basically bring the cost below the to doing the driving.
cost of ownership for everybody, and then car ownership
goes away,” he said. What also goes away are Uber drivers. Jim Winter is National Director, Industrial Services, for
Despite the blowback, Kalanick countered that the future Cresa, the world’s largest tenants-only commercial real estate
he addressed is inevitable, albeit years away.
fi rm. Contact him at [e-mail].
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