Commercial Investment Real Estate March/April 2017 | Page 8
MARKET
TRENDS
Nationwide: Major
Markets Show
Variation
OFFICE
4% Recession
12% Recovery
61% Expansion
Years Ahead Show
Intriguing Forecasts
Compared to 2016
Real GDP, % (AR)
Unemployment Rate, %
Federal Funds Rate, %
10-year U.S. Treasury Note, %
23% Contraction Office Sector
RETAIL Net Absorption, msf
Vacancy Rate
Asking Rent psf
3% Recession
56% Recovery
18% Contraction
INDUSTRIAL
2017 2018
1.6%
4.9%
0.4%
1.9% 2.3%
4.5%
1.0%
2.6% 3.0%
4.4%
1.8%
3.1%
50.2
13.2%
$29.20 54.9
13.1%
$30.25 45.9
13.4%
$30.77
$446.0 $455.7 $422.0
7.8% 6.4% 6.0%
7.2% 5.0% 3.1%
Capital Markets
Total Investment Sales, $ Bil.
NCREIF Unlevered Total
Returns, Qtly % Change
Moody’s/RCA CPPI, All
Property Types, YOY %
23% Expansion
2016
U.S. Economy
Source: U.S. Macro Forecast by Cushman & Wakefield Research
4% Recovery
62% Expansion
Disruption Transforming Auto Industry
Automotive revenue pool will rise and diversify toward on-demand
mobility services and data-driven services. USD billions.
Traditional
Automotive
Revenues
New Automotive
Revenues, 2030
Vehicle sales dominant
34% Contraction
6,700
Today
Recurring revenues
Significantly increasing
3% Recovery
12% Recession
1,500
MULTIFAMILY
56% Contraction
3,500
30
720
1,200
4,000
2,750
29% Expansion
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers
6
March | April 2017
Recurring revenues
• Shared mobility penetrates dense and suburban cities
with new car sharing and e-hauling business models*
•
USD 100 billion from data connectivity services,
30% including
apps, navigation, entertainment, remote
services, and software upgrades
Aftermarket
• Growth with increased sales
• Higher annual maintenance spent for
shared vehicles
• Up to 90% lower average crash repair per
automotive vehicle
One-time vehicle sales
• ~2% annual global increase in vehicle unit sales driven
by macroeconomic growth in emerging economies
• Price premiums paid for electric powertrains and
autonomous driving technology features
*Does not include traditional taxi and rentals
Source: McKinsey & Company
COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE