Commercial Investment Real Estate July/August 2018 | Page 27

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2018 GDP of more than 2.3 percent supports my forecast
that it will turn out to be the best Q1 GDP in a decade.
Backing up this outlook are strong Q1 corporate earnings.
Corporations are knocking the cover off the ball in terms of
earnings and growth — from disruptive technologies, like
Amazon and Facebook, to equipment manufacturing and
transportation, to old-school industries, such as Caterpillar
and Union Pacific Railroad.
Some of the good forward-looking indicators of what
lies ahead include jobs data, specifically the new monthly
LinkedIn Workforce report that highlights skills-gaps
by metropolitan statistical area as opposed to the flawed
monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. Other
good measures include watching what small businesses
and homebuilders are telegraphing. For example, the NFIB
Small Business Economic Trends Index shows that small
businesses are optimistic in the wake of tax reform and
or those keeping score during this third-longest
economic recovery since World War II, the bulls
continue to have a commanding lead over the
bears. Despite volatility in the stock market
and political uncertainty, economic growth is expected
to remain steady through midyear, with momentum that
likely will carry on well into the latter half of 2018.
Literally every economic measure, whether it is auto sales,
gross domestic product growth, jobs numbers, or manu-
facturing data, was off the charts favorable for first quarter
2018. We finally have returned to all aspects of a 3 percent
economy. Government’s initial estimates of first quarter
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