Commercial Investment Real Estate Fall 2022 | Page 10

MARKET TRENDS

SURVEY : 40 % OF OFFICE OCCUPANTS WILL SEEK SHORTER LEASES
STUDY : CANNABIS CULTIVATION WON ’ T HARM SURROUNDING MARKET VALUES
INVESTMENT BOOMS IN RETAIL MARKET DESPITE INFLATIONARY WORRIES
REVPAR TO TOP PRE- PANDEMIC LEVELS DESPITE SAGGING BUSINESS TRAVEL
Collecting responses from 207 office occupiers , Colliers ’ “ Return to Office ” survey highlighted interesting changes in a market rattled by COVID-19 . Forty percent of respondents said they would be looking for shorter lease terms compared to pre-pandemic conditions . Data from the survey showed a range of responses :
• Of the 69 percent of respondents who specified a number of days in the office , three ( 32 percent ) was the most popular , followed by three to four days ( 24 percent ) and two days ( 14 percent ).
• The use of a hybrid approach jumped from 20 percent pre-pandemic to 77 percent after COVID-19 . Totally remote increased from 2 percent to 5 percent , while totally in-office dropped from 78 percent to 11 percent .
• Two in five responses expected no change in space per person , while 34 percent expected decreased space .
The burgeoning industry around the production and cultivation of cannabis still resides in a legal gray area , where federal law technically prohibits its sale while many states have legalized marijuana use . Considering the market ’ s relative youth , government regulation and ordinances ( on the state and local level ) are often ill-prepared to deal with cannabis-related business . One Connecticut town ’ s regulations called for evidence that land used for cannabis production will have little to no impact on the market values of the surrounding properties .
Pullman & Cromley , a local law firm , commissioned a neighborhood impact study that examined commercial real estate trends by comparing leased commercial assets near cannabis facilities to those farther away , as well as industrial inventory near such a facility compared to the area as a whole . The appraiser found that a cannabis cultivation and production facility would not negatively impact market values .
As capital began to flow back into the various commercial real estate sectors after many investors headed to the sidelines at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic , retail often took a backseat to safer destinations like industrial and multifamily assets . But new data from CBRE shows that the prospects for retail are brightening , with $ 98.4 billion invested in the sector in the 12 months ending in 2Q2022 , which is an increase of 115.4 percent compared to the year — the highest jump in any of the five major sectors in the study .
But retail assets face an uneasy future with concerns of inflation . A recent study by HomeServe showed that consumers were least likely to give up dining out ( 49 percent ), streaming entertainment ( 47 percent ), and vacations ( 45 percent ). Conversely , pet grooming ( 16 percent ) and leisure club membership ( 18 percent ) were the areas most likely to be cut by those concerned with inflation .
The hospitality industry will forever be changed by the COVID-19 pandemic in how it interacts with customers and how properties are managed . But when it comes to the bottom line , the numbers say the sector is on its way to surpassing pre-pandemic highs . According to the Midyear Hospitality National Report by Marcus & Millichap , the average daily rate for hotel rooms hit $ 140.59 in June , topping the previous high from February by 7 percent . While occupancy remained 4.5 percent below 2019 levels , the improved per-room returns meant revenue per available room ( RevPAR ) climbed to $ 87.62 , just north of the pre- COVID-19 high of $ 86.60 .
Investment activity also paints a promising picture for hotels . The average sale price per room over the previous year in June was $ 110,400 , a new high for the sector , while cap rates dropped to 7.5 percent after nearing 9 percent in 2019 .
This page , left to right : Klaus Vedfelt , kmatija , Murat Taner , Jacob Lund
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COMMERCIAL INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE MAGAZINE FALL 2022