POLITICS
POLITICS
Election 2024 : A Conversation with National Review ’ s Rich Lowry
By Larry Feld Contributing Editor
This year began with many political wildcards . Pending presidential elections , expensive military conflicts overseas , and inflation-inspired interest rates continue weighing heavily on everyone ’ s mind . What direction will our economy take this year ? Will immigration continue to increase unchecked ? And the big question : Will we be better served in the White House by the Democrat candidate or the Republican ?
For a unique perspective from someone possessing a finely-tuned ear on the national conservative beat , CIANJ members recently listened to the wisdom of Rich Lowry , editor-in-chief of the National Review , the conservative publication founded by the late William F . Buckley , Jr .
Lowry began his career as a research assistant for the late columnist and political commentator Charles Krauthammer , a job Lowry admits was sometimes terrifying . “ Not because Charles wanted to terrify anyone , but because he was inherently formidable and not a backslapper . But he was a wonderful man ,” Lowry reflects .
After a stint for a local newspaper in northern Virginia , in 1992 Lowry earned a job at the National Review after placing second in the magazine ’ s young writers ’ contest . By 1997 , he was promoted to Editor of National Review .
In a freeform discussion about what we can expect in the 2024 national political realm , CIANJ members offered Lowry a broad range of challenging questions .
Why Trump Will Win the Nomination Lowry explains the real reasons why the former president is the leading candidate at the moment .
“ Two big things that almost effectively hand Trump the nomination . One is the indictment and the supportive reaction from Republicans ,” he claims . The other reason , Lowry says , is the collapse of Joe Biden ’ s popularity in the polls . “ He is in a pathetic state . Trump is leading in polling by double digits on every policy matter against Biden . At this point , he has a 50-50 chance to win the election ,” Lowry predicts .
Does Lowry feel that Donald Trump will run away with the nomination ?
“ Yes . It is not a contest . I wish it were a contest because contests are interesting if you are a journalist . If Trump wins it will be crazy , but the other candidates have zero traction ,” he says .
On Ron DeSantis : “ I am surprised at the level he didn ’ t resonate .
I think one problem is that he is running as
Donald Trump . Also , politics on a national level depends on performance ability and personality . It is a terrible cliché , but he doesn ’ t have the X factor . Donald Trump has this in spades . He is a showman above everything else . He is highly entertaining . He is highly charismatic . He is bigger than everyone else . He is orange-er than everyone else ,“ Lowry explains .
On Chris Christie :
“ He is a tremendously talented communicator . I think he was a good governor , but there is no path for him in this election .”
On Nikki Haley :
“ Her problem is that she went after the never-Trump Republicans . While that might be 25 % of the Republican vote , there is nowhere else for her to go . At this time , I don ’ t see any plausible scenario where Trump doesn ’ t get the nomination ,” Lowry says .
What if Trump is Convicted on Federal Charges ?
Lowry opened the door to a scenario almost no one has raised : What if the former President gets convicted of Federal crimes before the election ?
“ I tend to think he will get convicted in Jack Smith ’ s case and I tend to think that he might go to jail ,” Lowry suggests , although he quickly explains his prediction is one of caution . “ There will be a fierce reaction . I don ’ t think there is any reason to go down this path and it will be highly destructive for the country .”
What about if Biden is not the nominee ?
“ Biden doesn ’ t want to be switched out , and I don ’ t think he will be switched out ,” Lowry says . “ Polls now show that things are about even . It is still very early to rely on these numbers , but Biden ’ s health is declining . We can see it with our own eyes . If that should get worse , things could change .”
But if Biden is not the candidate , is it possible that an unknown candidate could grab the nomination ?
“ The truth is , it is probably too late for that to happen . He is the nominee ,” Lowry suggests . “ However , if he becomes incapacitated and Vice President Harris has to step in as President , she will be the nominee ,” Lowry predicts .
Gavin Newsome
Lowry also feels that Kamala Harris , if she ran at the top of the ticket , would have a problem , as several other democrats may challenge her . “ For example ,” Lowry says , “ There is Gavin Newsom .
Richard Lowry , editor-in-chief of the National Review
He looks like a West Wing version of the president . He ’ s an empty suit , but it is a very nice suit ,” Lowry quips .
Michelle Obama
“ I don ’ t think she will try to run , because once you are a world celebrity and you have already been there , it becomes beneath you . But if she were to run , I think she would win hands down ,” Lowry predicts , adding that the negatives are high for both Trump and Biden . “ Any generic candidate with that ( Obama ) kind of power – be they Democrat or Republican – would have an advantage over either party ’ s candidate this election ,” he says .
Potential Congressional Republican Weakness
Lowry also notes that Republican seats in the House may be in jeopardy as the party struggles for leadership , money , and power . “ It has not been a good time for the Republicans . They shot their biggest fundraiser , Kevin McCarthy in the head . Without the money , the Republicans could have some weakness in house races ,” he notes .
The Economy
“ The economy is the most important issue , and it is the tale of two cities . Inflation has receded but people still feel it . Expenses are higher than they have ever been . Employment is good , but the cost of living is still a factor . There is a real disconnect between pundits and the people . That is why Trump is leading by over ten points on economic issues ,” Lowry notes .
February , 2024 COMMERCE 19