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AfCFTA ' s future uncertain as key decisions on tariffs and rules of origin hang in the balance

By Eamonn Ryan

Nearly six years after its launch on 30 May, 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement( AfCFTA) has yet to significantly reshape intra-continental trade, with progress stalled on crucial decisions regarding tariff liberalisation and rules of origin.

This concern was raised by trade experts Prof Gerhard Erasmus and Trudi Hartzenberg of the Trade Law Centre, during a recent workshop hosted by Exporters Western Cape.

Despite efforts to remove tariffs on 90 % of trade goods within the free trade zone, many AfCFTA member countries have yet to agree on which items will fall into the remaining

“ Both tariffs and rules of origin serve as protection mechanisms for industries. For South Africa and others, we cannot make tariff commitments unless the rules of origin are clear. If the rules are stringent, we can proceed with tariff reductions, knowing they’ ll still protect the sector. But if the rules are more lenient, we may decide to exclude these sectors from liberalisation,” Hartzenberg stated.

In response, the AfCFTA’ s council of ministers, the agreement’ s highest decision-making body, has directed member states to conclude negotiations for Category B and C goods.

The finalisation of the rules of origin is expected by October 2025. Once completed, tariff offers are anticipated to be finalised, potentially unlocking the full benefits of AfCFTA for African trade.

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10 %. This group includes sensitive products— subject to gradual tariff reductions over a longer period— and those to be excluded from liberalisation, which may account for up to 3 % of the total tariff lines. Industries such as clothing, textiles and automotive have not yet finalised their rules of origin, leaving countries hesitant to fully commit to tariff reductions.

South Africa, in particular, still needs to submit tariff proposals for up to 7 % of goods that are considered sensitive( Category B goods), and for 3 % of products that could be exempt from tariff reductions for reasons like national security, food security or fiscal needs( Category C goods).

For products in the Category B group, tariffs will be reduced over a longer span, with South Africa and other Southern African Customs Union( SACU) countries extending the period to 13 years, compared to the 10 years planned for the Category A goods with zero tariffs.

Hartzenberg explained that South Africa’ s reluctance to make

Despite efforts to remove tariffs on 90 % of trade goods within the free trade zone, many AfCFTA member countries have yet to agree on which items will fall into the remaining 10 %.

When measurement matters a comprehensive tariff offer to the

AfCFTA secretariat is largely due to the unresolved rules of origin for key sectors.

Nearly six years after its launch on 30 May, 2019, AfCFTA has yet to significantly reshape intracontinental trade.

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