Cold Link Africa |
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INCORPORATING COLD CHAIN
CONTENTS REGULARS
3 Editor ’ s column 33 Products 34 Buyer ’ s guide 35 Word search
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VOL . 38 - NO . 2 | MAY 2024
ColdLinkAfrica
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Supplied by Commercial Cold Holdings |
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NEWS
4 East Africa ’ s cold chain development has begun 4 Farewell to Clive Slade : 13 March 1931 – 15 January 2024
ASSOCIATIONS
5 Port regulations can be a double-edged sword 6 The purpose behind the ‘ dice ’ 8 Tackling the climate crisis in 2023 / 24 10 Paul Matthew appointed as director : GCCA Africa
EVENTS
11 HERVAC design , technology and trends – it ’ s all at FRIGAIR 2025 !
FEATURES
13 Keeping it cool in public cold stores
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PROJECT
25 The first of many CO 2 projects for SCM Ref Africa 27 Kenya ’ s Instaveg benefits from modular cold storage , pre-cooling and processing facility
TECHNICAL
30 Refrigeration to store foods
We want to showcase your projects ! Get in touch : eamonn @ interactmedia . co . za
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Supplied by John Ackermann |
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Agricultural data has an important bearing on the cold chain , and doubts have been raised by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy ( BFAP ), a respected think-tank , on the veracity of its data which in turn has implications for policy making by government . The BFAP has , on two occasions in 2024 , cast doubt upon the correctness of Stats SA ’ s data concerning the agricultural sector . In both instances – pertaining to agricultural sector GDP and employment figures – the BFAP has sounded the alarm , emphasising that discrepancies in Stats SA ’ s data carry significant ramifications for public policy .
The BFAP ’ s vigilance underscores the importance of accurate statistical information in shaping effective policies for agriculture . By scrutinising the numbers , they aim to ensure informed decision-making and sustainable growth in this vital domain .
According to Stats SA , the agricultural sector experienced a contraction of 12.2 % in 2023 . Though a contraction was expected , the extent of this sharp decline was unexpected and described as “ a big surprise ” by the bureau . The BFAP had estimated that agriculture contracted by 3 %– 5 % during the period .
Historically , over the past 77 years there have been only eight instances when agricultural output shrank by more than 10 %. The most substantial decline of 19.9 % occurred in 1995 – but was due to a severe
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drought caused by El Niño . Furthermore , four of the other contractions followed a year of strong growth , suggesting that a return to norm from a previous high base was responsible . However , the reported 12.2 % decline in 2023 comes in the context that the agricultural economy grew by only 0.9 % in 2022 .
Stats SA ’ s calculation is based on both income and expenditure data . While factors like animal disease , crop prices and logistics challenges may have impacted farmers ’ incomes , the overall picture involves a combination of declining and / or increased expenditure .
In their recent analysis , the BFAP disagreed with Stats SA ’ s calculation . They argue that the 12.2 % decline is excessively large , especially considering that the agricultural economy grew by only 0.9 % in 2022 . Historical context and the impact of previous year ’ s growth play a crucial role in understanding this discrepancy .
The BFAP also examined farm incomes , adjusted for inflation , using data from the Department of Agriculture , Land Reform & Rural Development . Their conclusion suggests that a sharp increase in expenditure could explain the significant GDP contraction reported by Stats SA .
This follows BFAP ’ s questioning of data on agricultural jobs as set out in the quarterly labour force survey ( QLFS ) for the third quarter of 2023 , which BFAP says was “ not supported by evidence on the ground ”.
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On employment , the BFAP said in a January brief that Stats SA data suggested large job creation , which was at odds with “ reports on the ground ”. This oddity had serious implications for policy as the vibrancy of the agricultural labour market was a consideration in the adjustments to the sector ’ s national minimum wage .
Stats SA data showed 83 000 agricultural jobs in the year to end-September 2023 . The BFAP concluded that the creation of this amount of jobs would be “ the equivalent of having additional blueberry production seven times the country ’ s current capacity or the doubling of the country ’ s now mature citrus industry .
“ The main point is that to create such a large number of agricultural jobs would normally require excessive investment and planning [ that is ] almost impossible to do in a year and impossible to hide .”
The think-tank adds that it may be natural to infer that factors such as animal disease ( avian flu in particular ), the drop in prices of field crops or inefficient logistics and electricity power cuts would have affected farmers ’ incomes . However , the GDP calculation involves the income and expenditure side . “ Thus , a decline in the real agricultural GDP encompasses a combination of declining and / or increased expenditure .”
Based on data from the department of agriculture , land reform & rural development as well as agriculture ’ s producer inflation , the BFAP concludes that
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farm incomes , adjusted for inflation , fell by more than 3 % in 2023 . This conclusion would then point to a sharp increase in expenditure as the factor that explains the 12.2 % contraction in GDP . But the bureau discounts this too , because agricultural input prices only increased by 3.6 %. CLA
Eamonn
REFERENCES
1 . www . bfap . co . za / wp-content / uploads / 2024 / 03 / AgGDP-Brief- 2023Q4 . pdf
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