Cold Link Africa January February 2026 | Page 3

The risk of doing business in Africa Lessons from Djibouti’ s seizure of DP World terminal.
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The risk of doing business in Africa Lessons from Djibouti’ s seizure of DP World terminal.

EDITOR ' S COLUMN

Africa’ s leaders are fond of pointing to the African Continental Free Trade Area( AfCFTA) as the gamechanger that will unlock the continent’ s economic potential. With 1.4 billion people and a combined GDP of USD3.4-trillion, AfCFTA is the world’ s largest free-ish trade zone by membership.

The vision is compelling: tear down
tariffs, boost intra-African trade, industrialise
the continent and create jobs. Yet beneath
the smooth words lies a fundamental
challenge – trade integration only works
when investors, both local and global,
can rely on rules being honoured. The
ongoing dispute between DP World and
the government of Djibouti is a reminder
that, for all the ambition, the rule of law in
Africa remains patchy, undermining the
foundation AfCFTA rests upon.
The London Court of International
Arbitration( LCIA) ruled in late 2025 that
Djibouti’ s 2018 seizure of the Doraleh
Container Terminal( DCT) was unlawful. DP
World, which had a 50-year concession to
operate the terminal, has already secured
arbitration awards of about USD685-million
against the government – awards Djibouti
has so far refused to honour. In addition,
DP World has claims of roughly USD1-billion
against the government and its partner,
China Merchants Port Holding. Yet the
company has been blocked from exercising
its rights at the terminal, raising serious
questions about whether binding contracts in Africa can withstand political expedience.
For the cold chain sector, this case is a cautionary tale. Cold chain infrastructure – refrigerated warehouses, temperaturecontrolled trucks and portside storage – is capital-intensive, requiring billions of dollars in upfront investment. Unlike traditional logistics, cold chain projects have particularly long payback periods, sometimes stretching decades. They demand regulatory certainty, contract enforceability and trust in governance. If a global giant like DP World, with its deep pockets and international leverage, can be pushed aside in favour of political expediency with China, what confidence can smaller cold chain investors have when entering African markets?
This matters because cold chain development is not just a commercial priority; it is central to Africa’ s food security, health and export competitiveness. Across much of the continent, post-harvest losses of fresh produce remain shockingly high – in some countries exceeding 30 % due to lack of refrigeration and efficient logistics. For the pharmaceutical sector, reliable cold chains are the difference between life and death when it comes to vaccine distribution. On the export side, Africa’ s ability to compete in global markets for perishable goods like flowers, seafood and
fruit depends heavily on predictable, wellmanaged cold chain systems.
The AfCFTA framework, at least in theory, provides a golden opportunity for regional cold chain development. By creating larger, tariff-free markets, it should incentivise investment in cross-border logistics hubs, refrigerated transport corridors and portside facilities. But the success of this vision is contingent on more than market size. Investors will ask: what happens if a government tears up the contract? Will arbitration awards be enforced? Is there a legal mechanism to ensure continuity when political winds shift?
By contrast, established markets such as the US, Europe and parts of Asia offer a high degree of certainty. Legal systems are transparent, arbitration rulings are enforceable, and governments understand the cost of undermining investor trust. This predictability makes them attractive to companies deploying long-term capital. For AfCFTA to compete, Africa must not only offer opportunities but also demonstrate reliability.
The Djibouti dispute illustrates the stakes. DP World argues that the issue is bigger than a single terminal – it is about whether governments across Africa will respect the rule of law and international business standards. For cold chain investors, the case should ring alarm bells. If such
behaviour becomes the norm, the continent
risks scaring away precisely the kind of
patient, large-scale investment it needs to
modernise its logistics and ensure resilience
in food and medicine supply chains.
None of this is to dismiss Africa’ s
potential: AfCFTA could be a springboard
for a more integrated and efficient logistics
sector, reducing losses, cutting costs and
making African exporters more competitive
globally. But potential without trust is fragile.
The road to a functional continental
free trade zone is not just about tariffs and
customs. It is about building an environment
where investors, whether in ports, roads or
cold storage facilities, can trust that their
commitments will be protected.
CLA
SOURCE:
Djiboutji’ s seizure of DP World-built terminal unlawful | Freight News
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