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It sounds like science fiction , but is fast becoming fact . We ’ re facing imminent change to the very nature of employment . However , as coaches we can be part of the solution .
Unless you follow cybernetics , you may have missed rapidly unfolding developments in artificial intelligence ( AI ). Loosely defined as a computer performing complex or inscrutable reasoning , for many years AI failed to deliver promises like speech recognition , language comprehension and facial recognition , and was consequently ridiculed . But in recent years those goals have been realized . You can ask your smartphone to show photos containing a particular friend , and it will decode your speech , understand the request and find images where that person was recognized .
That pace of development is poised to disrupt many fields . Most people still haven ’ t seen a self-driving car , yet Morgan Stanley predicts autonomous vehicles will take over long-haul truck driving within ten years . ( Consider that a self-driving truck has already navigated the state of Nevada .) That will eliminate three million jobs in the United States .
But suppose your clients are whitecollar workers who drive a desk and are handsomely paid for thinking — people like Wall Street analysts who earn more than $ 350,000 USD annually . AI is also automating that . Daniel Nadler , founder of an AI analytics company , thinks that by 2026 , 33 – 50 percent of finance employees will lose their jobs to software . Tellingly , he predicts “ clients [ will ] no longer feel they need or even want to work through a human being .”
Between these demographic bookends lie many other vulnerable industries , such as warehouse packers ( replaced by bipedal
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robots ), office receptionists ( Microsoft deployed an artificial prototype three years ago ) and security ( drones hunting everything from terrorists to illegally parked cars ). All this is happening not on fantasy timescales but within one to two decades . If that ’ s still too far off to concern you , Gartner ’ s Darryl Plummer predicts that within one to two years :
• Twenty percent of all business content ( such as report-writing and legal documents ) will be automated .
• More than three million workers will be supervised by a “ robo-boss .”
• Forty-five percent of the fastestgrowing companies will have fewer employees than smart machines .
Bank of America lists entire industries facing widespread automation , including agriculture , health care , education and entertainment . Computer scientist Moshe Vardi predicts most jobs will be automated by 2045 .
If you coach managers … who will be left for them to manage ?
Deep breath , people .
Coaches are not in imminent danger of being replaced by computers . ( See “ Which Jobs are Safest ?,” at right .) The safest jobs are those working directly with people in physical or emotional capacities .
Your white-collar clients may scoff at the notion that they are about to become obsolete ; most of them are overworked and can ’ t imagine that mountain vanishing . But when Wile E . Coyote fell off a cliff , he also thought everything was fine right up until he went splat . Disruption wouldn ’ t be disruptive if everyone saw it coming .
A common belief axiomatic among intellectuals is that automation
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WHICH JOBS ARE SAFEST ?
A 2013 Oxford University study shows the likelihood of an occupation being automated versus median wage and profession size .
The most numerous jobs at greatest risk are cashiers , retail salespeople and food service workers . Many physical jobs , from stockers to masons , are at risk because automation includes robotics , which has made significant advances even since 2013 . Boston Dynamics ’ Atlas robot walks surefootedly on two feet carrying packages .
Also at high risk are knowledge workers , ranging from technical writers and insurance brokers to nuclear technicians and executive assistants .
Coaches aren ’ t called out specifically , but psychologists , teachers and therapists are all at low risk . So are nurses , teachers and scientists .
However , I take issue with some of the study ’ s conclusions : I also assess chief executives and lawyers as safe , which is true in the short term but ultimately shortsighted . Eventually corporations will cede C-suite decision-making to AIs in order to react fast enough .
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Coaching World 27 |