Climate Change: Considerations for Geographic Combatant Commands PKSOI Paper | Page 17

cation titled “Climate Change Impacts in the United
States,” specifically addresses physical causes and
human security effects relevant to much of the Caribbean.23 The physical manifestations of climate change
most important for consideration in the Caribbean
are sea level rise, increased storm intensity, and temperature increases (which drive the aforementioned
storms). The USGCRP reports that precipitation
trends are “unclear” with predictions that some regions will receive smaller annual amounts and some
larger amounts of precipitation.24 Existing National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s)
gauges around Puerto Rico are useful data points for
SOUTHCOM’s initial consideration of sea level rise.
At Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineer’s (USACE’s) “intermediate” / mid-range sea
level rise projection by the year 2100 is 0.46m (1.52 ft).25
For informing risk assessments, both USACE and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
highlight the importance of evaluating the widest possible range of impacts.26 In a recent forum addressing
Defense Ministers of the Americas, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel summarized an initial assessment
of a 50-year horizon of sea level rise risks in the Caribbean as having the potential to “claim 1,200 square
miles of coastal land” and causing some islands “to be
completely evacuated.”27
In addition to sea level rise and the expected
global temperature change of 2-5oF in the Caribbean,
SOUTHCOM planners will need to consider the predictions by USGCRP and other scientific bodies that
warming temperatures will cause tropical storms to
be fewer in number, but stronger in force, with more
Category 4 and 5 storms.28 SOUTHCOM planners will
need to leverage the technical resources detailed later

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