Historic Sales Volumes
CAB
CPA
CAB
100
90
80
90
CPA
79
80
In the run up to the FIT Show 2019,
CAB Chief Executive, Justin Ratcliffe
2019 Q1 State of Trade
considers the latest Council for
Aluminium in Building State of
Market Survey and finds that the
aluminium
in building sector is
Proportion
of Sales Exported
Capital Investment
ahead
the overall construction
Sales
Volumes of
- Quarter-on-Quarter
Sales Volumes - Year-on-Year
sector in both forecasted sales
and capital investment…
70
58
60
54
46
50
40
26
20
10
33
30
58
Survey
20
0
21
62
60 by not more than
Down
5%
50
53
5
31
21
No change
37
CAB
Q1, 2019 MARKET SURVEY:
Overall CAB members
20
Up by not more than 5%
16
CONTINUED
CONFIDENCE 8 DESPITE
expected overall cost inflation
5
5
10
0
0
0
0
HOUSEBUILDING
to persist 37
but there was not the
Up by over 5% AND BREXIT
Over 15%
11 to 15%
6% to 10%
Up to 5%
None
STOCKPILING CONCERNS
same level of concern as there
0
10
20
30
40
50
Past y ear
Up by over 5%
60
63
Next y ear
68
5
47
0
Annual
47
68
47
42
26
26
32
0
26
10
80
Down by over 5%
70
100
90
80
70 Down by over 5%
58
60
50
Down by not
37 more
37 than
40
5%
30
20
No change
10
0
Up by not more than 5%
CPA
CA B
90
Quarterly
Annual
100
40
Net
Quarterly
30
50
63
10
0
40
60
30
70
100
Expected Sales Volumes
37
20
30
40
50
60
The very latest Q1, 2019 Proportion of firms
was - against
in the
last ago
quarter with 47%
quarter
Proportion of firms - against year ago
CAB State of Market Survey
net balance expecting increases
net balance forecast an increase CONSTRUCTION SECTOR CONCERNS
The aluminium in building
showed continued rises in
in the next quarter and 58% net
in the next quarter suggesting
sector continues to defy the
expected sales volumes and
balance expecting increases
some short-term uncertainty
Historic
Costs
Expected Unit Costs
wider construction outlook that
a very Unit
positive
view of capital
over the next 12 months (86%
brought on by Brexit issues.
CAB
100
100
CAB
CPA
is CPA
not as positive. The Markit/
investment over the next 12
and 95% respectively in Q4,
Overall
capacity levels were
90
90
CIPS PMI for construction was
months. In the next quarter
2018).
reported to be sufficient in
77
80
80
73
69
49.7 in March, up from 49.5 in
79% net balance of members
Continued demand for skilled
Q1 given
sector output and
70
70
58
February but
remained below
forecasted growth (68% in Q4,
labour 58 placed upward pressures
demand.
17% of members 55
60
60
47
50
50
the no-change mark of 50,
2018) while 63% net balance
on wages and salaries with
reported that they had operated
40
40
indicating that construction
of members 26
forecasted growth
79% net balance of members
at between
90% and full
30
30
activity contracted for a second
in the year ahead (73% in Q4,
highlighting it as a key cost factor. capacity
over the last 12 months
20
20
consecutive month, the first
2018). While the quarterly
Raw materials (68% net balance)
(19% in
10 Q4, 2018). In a year’s
10
0
0
time this has occurred since
forecast
is highly encouraging,
and lingering high energy costs
time, capacity
utilisation was
Quarterly
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
August 2016. The decline in
there is again a concern
(63% net balance) also continued
expected to be 90% or higher
construction output was driven
that this might represent
to exert upward pressure on
according to 22% of members
by a fall in commercial and
some element of short-
manufacturers input costs.
(29% in Q4, 2018).
Information
about the
Council
in Building
and the
civil engineering activity, which
term stockpiling.
The
wider for Aluminium
Demand
was reported
to State of Trade
Once Survey
again there was a
more than offset a modest
construction sector showed a
be the key constraint on sales
very positive view of capital
The Council for Aluminium in Building’s (CAB) aim is to support the interests of the architectural aluminium industry by encouraging the increasing use of
upturn are
in residential
small
contraction
in
activity
in
growth
over
the
next
12
months.
investment
over
the
next
12
aluminium products in architecture and in the construction industry as a whole. Members of the Council for Aluminium in Building
involved in building
all stages of
March 2019
and a and
levelling
off systems,
63%
of CAB of
members
months of which
continues
to be
construction,
extrusion
design of
fabrication
products, reported
finishing, production
associated
products
and final work.
installation on site. For more
information,
contact
CAB on 01453 828851. that demand was likely to be the
Housing starts stagnated
in housing
starts.
a very strong feature of the
at 165,160 last year, despite
Once again members were
key constraint on sales over the
CAB State of Market Survey.
The quarterly State of Trade Survey provides an insight into current and expected future industry trends. The survey utilises a balance of respondents to
government
efforts
to pump up
positive
or more
positive
next 12 balance
months.
other major
In Q1,
metrics
showed
a
assess as survey
results
and identify
trends. A positive
of The
respondents
means that
the three
percentage
of firms
reporting
a rise
is more than
the proportion
of
housing supply to achieve its
all the a investment
constraint
was
raw material
firms across
that reported
decline, providing a summary
of the
industry
overall.
forecasted increase for the year
much heralded building target
metrics for the year ahead
prices (16%) with other factors
ahead compared to the past
of 300,000 homes by the mid-
compared to the previous 12
noted as capacity, material
year. Customer research (47%
2020s. After steadily growing
months.
supply imports. However,
compared to 26%), e-business
in recent years from a trough of
Looking at the sales
5% of members reported no
(42% compared to 26%) and
compared to a year ago, 37% of
constraints.
plant/equipment (63% compared around 75,000 in 2009, starts
have remained at the 165,000
members reported a rise above
Confidence in the year ahead
to 58%). The remaining
level for two years, according to
5% and 26%, a rise of up to 5%.
encouraged CAB members to
metrics showed the same
the government’s own figures.
Only a total of 5% of members
forecast a 47% net balance in
level of confidence, product
The plateau is being blamed on
reported any reduction (up to
headcount during 2019 (55% in
improvement (68%), R&D (47%)
Brexit uncertainty.
5% or more than 5%).
Q4, 2018). However, only 26%
and property (37%).
7 4 MAY 2019