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DR KEILL SPOKE IN front of around 70 journalists from 17 countries at the press day and focused on good news in his 2017 forecast. He said that for the first time in years, he did not expect any‘ further market stresses below the line’ and instead predicted an overall stabilisation. This was reflected in the group’ s forecast total sales of around 620 million euros, just below the previous year’ s levels.

Window and door markets in Germany, Europe and the world were in an essentially unchanged situation in 2016 compared to 2015, although there was a moderate upward trend in Europe. This applied to Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland although‘ the losers’ included Great Britain.

The research network Euroconstruct expected its 19 countries’ average housing construction to grow by 2.5 % in 2017. In the current year, growth was primarily driven by new builds, which rose by just over 5.5 %, albeit from a low base. Southern and Eastern Europe were among growth regions.

Positive predictions could not hide the fact that the total

European market had shrunk by a quarter to 70 million window units since 2007( then 93 million window units). There was also pressure from what Dr Keill described as the‘ Eastern European export offensive’, which was benefiting from the ongoing trend towards PVCu windows and now included Romania as well as Poland. Individual producers in Romania exported up to 90 % of their entire production.

Ireland, Hungary, Portugal and Spain were in the lead regarding European housebuilding. The midfield included Germany and Great Britain although the Brexit effects in the United Kingdom had not yet been‘ priced in.’ Italy and Belgium brought up the rear.

On Germany, Dr Keill said:“ Construction here is not just new builds. The renovation sector, which is responsible for about 70 % of the total market, is stagnating, or in some cases, even falling. New apartment figures of 350,000 to 400,000 a year are currently unrealistic.”

Roto’ s chief financial officer, Michael Stangier, estimated total group sales as at 30th September 2016 to be just over 480 million

euros – which was described as a relative success in the light of‘ some spectacular market weaknesses.’

The Window and Door Technology division recorded a slight rise in sales revenue, including sales from this year’ s Deventer and Peder Nielsen acquisitions. Roto’ s Roof and Solar Technology division reported a slight, single digit drop in overall sales.

The Roto positions remained stable in generally falling markets – also based on the successful introduction of the generation‘ Q’ roof window. However, Michael Stangier described the 2016 earnings situation as‘ clearly unsatisfactory.’ He blamed market-related stresses, higher raw material prices of up to 40 %( zinc, aluminium) and negative currency shifts.

RUSSIAN SLUMP

Dr Keill referred to a‘ continued slump’ in window and door markets in Russia and sharp losses in China. The Russian slump, where the market had practically halved in just 20 months, was‘ particularly painful’ and was based primarily on political crises

( Ukraine and Syria), economic sanctions and low oil prices. There had also been a 30 % fall in government spending on construction in both 2015 and 2016.

In China, the entire building trade was essentially stagnating and housebuilding, which accounts for two thirds of overall building construction, looked to be weakening. South America, meanwhile, ranged from moderate market growth( Chile) to heavy falls( Argentina, Brazil).

By far the best market prospects came from the USA where the modernisation and repair sector were expanding rapidly. Positive forecasts were underpinned by population growth and the ageing housing stock.

Dr Keill said also of importance were general but little discussed sector problems like the continuing consolidation process, which was leading to falling company numbers.

Markets were constantly changing – there was a German trend towards higher-quality window and door fittings while in France the aluminium segment was‘ surprisingly’ gaining traction.