Clearview National April 2019 - Issue 209 | Page 58

event zone
Strong growth in sales confidence for year ahead
The Q4, 2018 CAB State of the Market Survey saw a dramatic
rise in confidence for sales growth in the next 12 months. With
2018 growth
Q4 State
of Trade
Survey
construction
continuing
to be driven
by private housing and
infrastructure, the key highlight was that 73% net balance of members
forecasted growth in sales over the next 12 months (41% in Q3).
Expected Sales Volumes
reasonable to say that the
B
CPA
CAB
CPA
100
market has looked beyond
90
the uncertainty
surrounding
77
80
73
73
68
Brexit although one also has to
70
64
60
consider that 55
a few companies
50
may have been increasing stock
40
levels. The results also provide
30
a very good justification for
20
10
the strong aluminium sector
0
presence
at the FIT Show 2019
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
which includes 11 CAB members
on the CAB Pavilion and over
rted
Capital Investment
30 members at the Show
on-Quarter
Sales
Volumes - Year-on-Year
overall.
100
Past y ear
Next y ear
CA B
CPA
90
The figures become even
80 Down by over 5%
0
70
62
more interesting in that for
57
57
57
60
52
Down by not more than
48
0
Q4, 45% of CAB 55
members
50
55
5%
38
33
40
saw growth of more than 5%
29
29
24 23
30
No
change
27
36
14
compared
to Q3, 18% saw
32
20
10
growth of up to 5% with 27% no
Up by not more than 5%
36
18
0
9
change. Only 9% saw a decline
0
Up by over 5%
41
45
and in all cases, this was by less
6% to 10%
Up to 5%
None
0
20
40
60
80
20
40 5%.
60
80
than
Proportion of firms - against year ago
Proportion of firms - against quarter ago
Continued demand for skilled
labour placed upward pressures
Cost Factors
on wages and salaries with
82% net balance of members
Taxes
Expected
Unit Costs 18
highlighting it as a key cost
95
CAB
CPA
100 & salaries
B
CPA
Wages
82
90
86
factor. Although the annual CPI
90
80
Energy costs
55
80
inflation rate fell to a 2 year
68
70 Fuel costs
64
50
low of 2.1% in December from
60
2.3% in November, pressures
Exchange
rates
32
50
persisted for members. Raw
40
Raw materials
59
30
materials (59% net balance)
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
and lingering high costs for
Net % Balance of Respondents
10
fuel (50% net balance) also
0
Annual
Quarterly
Annual
continued
to exert upward
pressure on manufacturers
Demand was reported to
supply and raw materials (each
Historic
input costs.
be
the key Capacity
constraint Utilisation
on sales
5%). However, 9% of members
CA B
CPA
Looking
ahead
for
the
year,
growth
reported
no constraints.
60 over the next 12 months.
cil for Aluminium in Building and the State of Trade Survey
CAB members expected overall
59% of CAB members reported
Higher sales in the 2nd half
50
lding’s (CAB)
aim inflation
is to support
the interests
of the that
architectural
the increasing
use of
cost
to persist
with 86%
demand aluminium
was likely industry
to be by encouraging
of 2018 coupled
with improved
40 of the Council for Aluminium in Building are involved in all stages of
re and in the net
construction
industry as increases
a whole. Members
balance expecting
the key
constraint on sales
expectations for the year ahead
n of systems, fabrication of products, finishing, production of associated products
30 and final installation on site. For
30 more
over 30 the next 12 27 months. The
encouraged CAB members to
53 828851. in the next quarter and 95% net
balance expecting increases
other
major constraints were
continue 18 hiring in Q4. In Q4,
20
ey provides over
an insight
into 12
current
and expected future
industry
trends. material
The survey utilises 55%
a balance
of respondents
to an
the next
months.
labour
availability,
net balance
forecasted
10 percentage of firms reporting a rise is more than the proportion of
trends. A positive balance of respondents means that the
viding a summary of the industry overall.
2018
CPA
CAB
Proportion of firms - against quarter ago
10
0
Year
Next Quarter
58 APR 2019
Labour Force
CPA
CAB
0
Quarter
increase
in headcount during
Historic Sales Volumes
2019.
100
90
Overall
capacity levels were 77
80
reported
to be sufficient in
70
55
55
60
Q4 50
given sector output and
40
demand.
19% of members
27
30
20
reported
that
they
had
10
0
operated
at between
90%
Quarterly
Annual
and full capacity over the last
12 months. In a year’s time,
Sales Volumes
- Quarter-on-Quarter
capacity
utilisation
is expected
over higher
5%
to be Down
90% by or
according
0
more
than
to Down
29% by not
of
members.
9
5%
Once again
there was a 27
No change
very
positive view of capital
Up by not more than 5%
18
investment
over
the
next
12 on Activity Ove
Likely
Constraints
Up by over 5%
45
months which has
become
0
20
40
60
100
90 feature of the
a very strong
80
CAB State 70
of Market
Survey.
59
60
In Historic
Q4, plant
&
equipment
50 Costs
Unit
40
was 100 the focus
30 for the year
18
90
20
ahead
with
62% of members 0
5 80
10
80
68
0 an increase in this
70
anticipating
55
60
area.
50 Furthermore, balances of
41
40
57% 30 expected to see increase
20
investment
in both product
10
0
improvement
and e-business.
Quarterly
Annual
This was followed by
balances of 52% for increased
Information
about the Capacity
Council for Aluminium
in Building and
Expected
Utilisation
investment
in property
and 24%
The customer
Council for 60
Aluminium
in Building’s
the CPA
i
for
research.
R&D (CAB)
was aim is to CA support
B
aluminium products in architecture and in the construction industry a
construction,
extrusion where
and design members
of systems, fabrication of products
the
only metric
50 CAB on 01453 828851.
information, contact
forecasted slightly less
The quarterly State
40 of Trade Survey provides an insight into current a
investment
(14%
balance)
assess survey results
and net
identify
trends. A positive balance of respond
30
firms
that
reported
a decline,
providing a summary of the industry ove
in the year 30 ahead
compared
19
to the previous
year (24%
net
20
balance).
2018 Q4 State of Trade
2018 Q4 State of Trade Survey
Labour Costs
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